PTL

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Victory Group

Bất động sảnCT

2.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

10.995

Current

2.800

Gap

+292.7%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

43.51%

Kd(1-t)

6.81%

D/(D+E)

56.49%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

4.803

60%DCF Value

15.124

Blended Intrinsic

10.995

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PTL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.30

Moderate

DSRI

0.779

GMI

1.604

AQI

0.833

SGI

1.842

DEPI

1.685

SGAI

0.877

TATA

-0.143

LVGI

1.134

PTL exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -2.2956, which is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the company shows strong cash conversion and receivables metrics, which may indicate some operational strengths.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.2956 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
SGI of 1.8424 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about the quality of reported earnings.
Low earnings quality score of 57.1/100, particularly with an eq_margin and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100, indicating potential issues with profitability and revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates that PTL is effectively converting its earnings into cash, which is a positive operational signal.
Receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests strong management of accounts receivable, indicating efficient collection processes.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top five shareholders holding 88.1% of the shares. This concentration may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, as decisions may favor the interests of a few individuals over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should approach PTL with caution due to the elevated risk of earnings manipulation and governance concerns. It is advisable to conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and the sustainability of growth.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.04

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.03

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+10.6%

Volatility

37.3%

Max Drawdown

-33.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

23.53P/E

P/B0.65

P/S0.59

ROE2.8%

ROA1.0%

EPS124.50

BVPS4487.41

Gross Margin11.7%

Net Margin2.5%

D/E1.78

Current Ratio1.12

Rev Growth77.0%

Profit Growth125.8%

EV/EBITDA-289.28

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

100.0M

Charter Capital

1000.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PTL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Đỗ Thị Hiền

Indiv

24.0%

24.0 trieu

nguyen-van-vinh

Indiv

20.1%

20.1 trieu

Lê Văn Thắng

Indiv

8.5%

8.5 trieu

Lê Thị Tư

Indiv

8.5%

8.5 trieu

Trần Thị Hường

Indiv

7.0%

7.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ và Đầu tư Bất Động Sản Ngôi Sao Phương Nam

Inst

5.3%

5.3 trieu

Lâm Hoàng Khanh

Indiv

4.7%

4.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Dầu khí Đông Đô

Inst

4.6%

4.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Hạ tầng Kỹ thuật Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

Inst

1.5%

1.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Thương Mại & Dịch Vụ Dầu Khí Việt Nam

Inst

0.5%

551.600

Lê Vũ Hoàng

Indiv

0.1%

100.000

Lê Vũ Hùng

Indiv

0.1%

100.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Tấn Thụ

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Quang Ấn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Trọng Tín

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Phú Hùng

Giám đốc

Đoàn Thị Mượt

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trương Tuấn Thành

Giám đốc Tài chính/Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Quang Hưng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Trung Trí

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Dương Văn Việt

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Huyền Mai

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Từ Thị Vy Uyên

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Top connections

PSI51.2%LGC47.8%DXS24.0%NBB21.9%LG920.1%RYG20.1%NAC20.1%GND20.1%DCH20.1%X2020.1%DSD17.6%NT210.3%

Computed 12/04/2026