YBM

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Khoáng sản Công nghiệp Yên Bái

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Khai khoángCT

10.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

1.185

Current

10.100

Gap

-88.3%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→54.33B

Fair EV/EBITDA→6.9x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

54.33B

Fair EV/EBITDA

6.9x

Net Debt

336.14B

Equity Value

1.185

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — YBM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.64

Elevated

DSRI

1.295

GMI

0.857

AQI

2.508

SGI

1.136

DEPI

0.860

SGAI

1.133

TATA

-0.011

LVGI

0.999

YBM exhibits a moderate risk profile with a Beneish M-Score of -1.6428, indicating that it is below the manipulation threshold but still close enough to warrant caution. The earnings quality score of 88.1 suggests strong underlying performance, though certain metrics, like receivables and revenue quality, show potential weaknesses.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.6428 is close to the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential financial manipulation risk.
Receivables quality score of 72.8/100 is lower than desirable, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition or collection.

Positive Signals

Earnings quality score of 88.1/100 indicates strong overall earnings quality, with particularly high cash conversion at 100.0/100.
Ownership concentration with top shareholders holding over 64% of shares may lead to stability in governance and strategic direction.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is somewhat concentrated, with the top three shareholders holding over 57% of the company. This could lead to potential governance risks if the interests of minority shareholders are overlooked.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's financial disclosures for signs of revenue manipulation and assess the effectiveness of management in addressing the lower quality metrics. Consider a cautious approach to investment until further clarity is provided on revenue recognition practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.69

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.36

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-11.1%

Volatility

46.9%

Max Drawdown

-26.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.98P/E

P/B0.89

P/S0.22

ROE13.6%

ROA4.1%

EPS1532.72

BVPS12007.60

Gross Margin36.3%

Net Margin3.1%

D/E2.32

Current Ratio1.04

Rev Growth13.7%

Profit Growth105.5%

EV/EBITDA6.13

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

32.2M

Charter Capital

321.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Khai khoáng

Sub-industry

Khai khoáng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for YBM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Đỗ Thanh Sơn

Indiv

23.4%

7.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Nhựa Châu Âu

Inst

23.0%

7.4 trieu

Đào Thị Thuận

Indiv

10.8%

3.5 trieu

Phan Thế Tùng

Indiv

7.9%

2.5 trieu

Đào Thị Dịu

Indiv

3.5%

1.1 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Huê

Indiv

1.8%

594.317

Trần Thị Thanh Thủy

Indiv

1.5%

495.000

Lê Hoàn

Indiv

1.1%

337.500

nguyen-tien-dung

Indiv

0.8%

110.000

Vũ Đức Hậu

Indiv

0.7%

238.360

Nguyễn Thị Bưởi

Indiv

0.4%

119.180

Nguyễn Đức Vũ

Indiv

0.3%

100.560

Hoàng Tuấn Ngọc

Indiv

0.3%

80.375

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Minh

Indiv

0.2%

30.000

Ngô Trọng Thuỷ

Indiv

0.2%

50.000

Board & Management

Đào Thị Dịu3.5%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Lê Hoàn1.1%

Phó Giám đốc

Vũ Đức Hậu0.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Bưởi0.4%

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Đức Vũ0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Đình Chinh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Thị Mai

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Hoàng Anh Quân

Phó Giám đốc

Huỳnh Song Trà

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Đình Đình

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

HOÀNG QUỐC HUY

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Don

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

KHP23.4%SGC2 links PVE6.2%KLB4.7%VTA4.0%HEV3.1%NVB1.6%HTC1.6%MRF1.5%HDC1.5%PLO1.5%SSB1.5%

Computed 12/04/2026