ACL

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Thủy sản Cửu Long An Giang

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

13.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

36.656

Current

13.200

Gap

+177.7%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

48.67%

Kd(1-t)

6.45%

D/(D+E)

51.33%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.50%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→136.81B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

136.81B

Growth Rate

2.50%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

36.656

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ACL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.75

Low Risk

DSRI

0.766

GMI

0.859

AQI

1.686

SGI

1.207

DEPI

0.983

SGAI

1.044

TATA

-0.101

LVGI

0.889

The Beneish M-Score of -2.7527 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 60.6 suggests some concerns, particularly in revenue recognition and margin quality, which could indicate underlying operational issues.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 60.6 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition, particularly with an eq_revenue score of 0.0/100.
SGI of 1.2073 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by cash flow, raising concerns about sustainability.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.7527 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, indicating relatively transparent financial reporting.
High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Trần Thị Vân Loan, holds a significant 54.8% stake, which may lead to potential governance risks and lack of minority shareholder protection. The concentration of ownership among individuals could also affect decision-making and transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and operational performance, particularly given the low revenue quality score. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer signals of sustainable growth and improved earnings quality emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.76

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.51

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+32.2%

Volatility

35.7%

Max Drawdown

-19.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

17.23P/E

P/B0.78

P/S0.31

ROE4.6%

ROA2.4%

EPS766.09

BVPS16912.88

Gross Margin12.6%

Net Margin1.8%

D/E0.84

Current Ratio1.82

Rev Growth20.7%

Profit Growth256.9%

EV/EBITDA12.29

Div Yield4.5%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

50.2M

Charter Capital

501.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ACL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Trần Thị Vân Loan

Indiv

54.8%

27.5 trieu

Nguyễn Thương Nhật Vi

Indiv

6.0%

3.0 trieu

Trần Thị Thu Vân

Indiv

4.6%

2.3 trieu

Trần Tuấn Khanh

Indiv

2.7%

1.4 trieu

Phạm Đình An

Indiv

2.7%

500.000

Trần Tuấn Nam

Indiv

2.6%

1.3 trieu

Quỹ đầu tư chứng khoán Bản Việt

Inst

2.3%

420.000

Nguyễn Xuân Hải

Indiv

2.1%

1.0 trieu

Trịnh Thị Mai Phương

Indiv

2.0%

995.517

asiavantage global limited

Inst

1.9%

350.000

Công ty Tài Chính TNHH MTV Bưu Điện

Inst

1.6%

286.460

Board & Management

Trần Thị Vân Loan54.8%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Tuấn Khanh2.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Xuân Hải2.1%

Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Hồng Ngọc

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Bích

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phù Chí Khai

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trương Minh Duy

Kế toán trưởng

Phan Thị Cẩm Tú

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Văn Thả

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Dương Ngọc Diễm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phan Thị Thùy Dương

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trần Minh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

VPC5.8%HRC4.8%DTG4.6%NTL4.6%VPH4.5%GIL4.3%CKV3.7%IME3.1%VSC2.8%PVT2.6%GMC2.6%HGM2.3%

Computed 12/04/2026