HGM
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HGM
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
HGM exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.2808, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, yet the high SGI of 1.8755 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable. The earnings quality score of 80.6/100 is strong, but low revenue quality metrics raise concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.
- SGI of 1.8755 indicates aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.
- Low revenue quality score of 26.5/100 raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.
- Beneish M-Score of -2.2808 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
- Earnings quality score of 80.6/100 indicates overall strong earnings quality.
The significant state ownership at 46.6% may lead to potential conflicts of interest and influence over corporate governance, which could affect minority shareholders. However, the presence of institutional investors may provide some level of oversight.
Investors should closely monitor revenue growth trends and assess the sustainability of HGM's earnings. Consider a cautious approach given the elevated risk level, particularly regarding revenue quality and ownership dynamics.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for HGM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate