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Cyclicals sector

DPM

Cyclicals
Tổng Công ty Phân bón và Hóa chất Dầu khí - Công ty Cổ phần
Hóa chấtCT
30.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
21.870
Current
30.800
Gap
-29.0%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA1215.76B
Fair EV/EBITDA14.7x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
1215.76B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
14.7x
-
Net Debt
2995.83B
=
Equity Value
21.870
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DPM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

19
Poor
Accrual Quality
39
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
68
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.82
High Risk
DSRI
1.733
GMI
0.793
AQI
1.205
SGI
1.227
DEPI
1.017
SGAI
1.020
TATA
0.178
LVGI
1.082

DPM exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -0.8238, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 18.5/100 highlights significant weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue recognition, raising red flags about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.8238 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 18.5/100, particularly low cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests poor earnings quality.
  • DSRI of 1.7333 indicates significant growth in receivables relative to revenue, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • SGI of 1.2273 indicates that sales growth is outpacing the industry average, which could be a positive sign for future revenue.
  • High equity margin score of 67.5/100 suggests that the company maintains a healthy profit margin relative to its peers.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 59.6% held by Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam, which may lead to governance issues and reduced accountability for minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor DPM's financial disclosures and performance metrics. Consider a more thorough due diligence process before making investment decisions, particularly focusing on cash flow and revenue recognition practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.43
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.61
Positive
Composite
34
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+20.0%
Volatility
31.0%
Max Drawdown
-25.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
15.83P/E
P/B1.50
P/S1.03
ROE9.6%
ROA6.3%
EPS1579.08
BVPS16695.26
Gross Margin17.7%
Net Margin6.5%
D/E0.54
Current Ratio2.41
Rev Growth23.2%
Profit Growth99.7%
EV/EBITDA14.70
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
680.0M
Charter Capital
6799.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DPM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam
Inst
59.6%
405.2 trieu
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch
Inst
4.6%
17.5 trieu
Tổng Công ty CP Vật Tư Nông Nghiệp Nghệ An
Inst
4.1%
15.9 trieu
Ngân hàng Deutsche Aktiengesellschaft
Inst
3.9%
14.8 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Nam
Inst
3.7%
14.0 trieu
CTBC Vietnam Equity Fund
Inst
2.7%
10.5 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Lương Thực Vật Tư Nông Nghiệp Nghệ An
Inst
1.9%
7.5 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Lương thực Vật tư Nông nghiệp Đăk Lăk
Inst
1.9%
7.4 trieu
Norges Bank
Inst
1.6%
6.3 trieu
VanEck Vietnam ETF
Inst
1.5%
5.9 trieu
The Edgbaston Asian Equity (Jersey) Trust
Indiv
1.1%
4.3 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Á Châu
Inst
1.0%
3.8 trieu
Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited
Inst
0.6%
2.4 trieu
DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company
Inst
0.5%
2.0 trieu
Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited
Inst
0.4%
1.6 trieu
Venner Group Limited
Inst
0.4%
1.5 trieu
beira limited
Inst
0.4%
1.4 trieu
balestrand limited
Inst
0.3%
1.2 trieu
Grinling International Limited
Inst
0.2%
933.000
Wareham Group Limited
Inst
0.2%
800.000
the ch/se asia investment holdings (singapore) private limited
Inst
0.1%
397.370
Board & Management
Lê Cự Tân
Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Vinh Văn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Phương Thảo
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hoàng Trọng Dũng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Trí Hội
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Kim Nhân
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lương Phương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Võ Ngọc Phương
Kế toán trưởng
Tạ Quang Huy
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đào Văn Ngọc
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trương Thế Vinh
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Trịnh Văn Khiêm
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Thị Thu Hương
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hoàng Trung Dũng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Cao Trung Kiên
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Louis T Nguyen
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Lê Văn Quốc Việt
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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