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Consumer sector

BIO

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Vắc xin và Sinh phẩm Nha Trang
Y tế/Dược phẩmCT
12.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
20.516
Current
12.100
Gap
+69.5%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTY tếConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
89.06%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.94%
x
D/(D+E)
10.94%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF9.77B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
9.77B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
20.516
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BIO

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

66
Fair
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
68
Margin Stability
69
Revenue Quality
10

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.18
Moderate
DSRI
0.703
GMI
0.987
AQI
2.043
SGI
1.034
DEPI
0.885
SGAI
0.931
TATA
0.013
LVGI
0.791

The Beneish M-Score of -2.1804 indicates that BIO is not likely to be manipulating earnings, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the low revenue quality score of 10.4/100 raises concerns about the sustainability of reported revenues, which could pose risks in the Vietnamese market context.

Red Flags
  • Low revenue quality score of 10.4/100 suggests potential issues with revenue recognition.
  • High concentration of ownership with Lê Đình Phan holding 39.0% may lead to governance risks and lack of minority shareholder protection.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1804 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Strong accrual quality score of 94.8/100 reflects good earnings quality in terms of accruals.
Ownership Risk

The top three shareholders collectively hold 85% of the company, which poses significant risks to minority shareholders regarding decision-making and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of concentrated ownership before making investment decisions. A deeper analysis of cash flow and revenue sustainability is recommended.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
8.68
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.09
Negative
Composite
55
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-10.9%
Volatility
84.0%
Max Drawdown
-39.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
ROE0.0%
ROA0.0%
Gross Margin31.6%
Net Margin13.0%
D/E0.00
Current Ratio0.00
Rev Growth4.7%
Profit Growth23.2%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
8.6M
Charter Capital
85.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Y tế
Industry (ICB L3)
Dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Dược phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BIO — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Lê Đình Phan
Indiv
39.0%
3.3 trieu
Công ty TNHH Y Dược Cali - U.s.a
Inst
24.5%
2.1 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Kim Chung
Indiv
21.5%
1.8 trieu
nguyen-thanh-long
Indiv
0.1%
12.000
Board & Management
Lê Đình Phan39.0%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Kim Chung21.5%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
NGUYỄN THÀNH LONG0.1%
Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Khánh Ninh
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Huỳnh Thị Thanh Thảo
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
TRẦN THANH HẢI
Kế toán trưởng/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Dương Thị Mai
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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