DTD

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển Thành Đạt

Bất động sảnCT

16.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

39.007

Current

16.200

Gap

+140.8%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

59.66%

Kd(1-t)

6.36%

D/(D+E)

40.34%

WACC

10.68%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend8.43%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

24.900

60%DCF Value

48.412

Blended Intrinsic

39.007

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DTD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.48

Low Risk

DSRI

0.170

GMI

0.778

AQI

0.626

SGI

1.667

DEPI

1.632

SGAI

0.606

TATA

-0.157

LVGI

0.893

The Beneish M-Score of -3.4765 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal some concerns, particularly the low revenue quality score of 0.0/100, which suggests potential issues in revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates significant concerns regarding revenue recognition practices.
High SGI of 1.6673 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 70.6/100 indicates generally good earnings quality, particularly strong cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100).
Low DSRI of 0.1698 suggests that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are primarily individuals, with the largest holding at 29.2%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The lack of institutional ownership could also limit oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of high growth rates on sustainability. A thorough review of financial statements and potential governance issues is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.07

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.26

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-13.3%

Volatility

38.3%

Max Drawdown

-42.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

4.67P/E

P/B0.89

P/S1.43

ROE21.0%

ROA10.5%

EPS3786.99

BVPS19919.91

Gross Margin56.9%

Net Margin30.6%

D/E0.56

Current Ratio2.05

Rev Growth66.7%

Profit Growth109.7%

EV/EBITDA1.48

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

66.7M

Charter Capital

666.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DTD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

nguyen-huy-cuong

Indiv

29.2%

19.5 trieu

nguyen-thanh-tam

Indiv

5.8%

3.9 trieu

Nguyễn Quang Trí

Indiv

5.3%

2.6 trieu

Phillip Securities Public Company Limited

Inst

5.3%

3.5 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Kim Chung

Indiv

4.0%

1.7 trieu

Phạm Ngọc Oánh

Indiv

3.7%

1.0 trieu

Nguyễn Mạnh Tuyển

Indiv

3.5%

1.1 trieu

Trần Việt Đức

Indiv

2.2%

950.759

nguyen-quang-anh

Indiv

1.2%

518.289

Phạm Văn Bống

Indiv

1.0%

200.000

Dương Thị Thu Hiền

Indiv

0.7%

282.493

Nguyễn Khắc Dụ

Indiv

0.6%

271.808

Nguyễn Hữu Thuyết

Indiv

0.6%

242.045

Phạm Văn Diễn

Indiv

0.5%

133.100

Vũ Đức Quý

Indiv

0.3%

112.602

Nguyễn Mạnh Hải

Indiv

0.2%

125.720

Board & Management

Nguyễn Huy Cương29.2%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thanh Tâm5.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Việt Đức2.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

NGUYỄN QUANG ANH1.2%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Khắc Dụ0.6%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hữu Thuyết0.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Đức Quý0.3%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Phạm Văn Hà

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

V2129.2%SBS29.2%NRC29.2%ANT29.2%BIO21.5%CKV6.5%SMA5.8%C4G5.8%CMX5.8%NO15.6%TNG5.3%ELC5.2%

Computed 12/04/2026