BTD

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Bê tông ly tâm Thủ Đức

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

19.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

63.583

Current

19.700

Gap

+222.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

32.81%

Kd(1-t)

6.20%

D/(D+E)

67.19%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.84%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

36.590

50%DCF Value

90.576

Blended Intrinsic

63.583

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BTD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.72

Low Risk

DSRI

0.799

GMI

1.088

AQI

0.996

SGI

1.173

DEPI

0.944

SGAI

1.081

TATA

-0.052

LVGI

0.987

BTD exhibits an elevated risk of financial manipulation, as indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -2.7227, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 78.3 suggests relatively strong cash conversion and receivables management, indicating some operational strengths.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.7227 indicates potential earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
SGI of 1.1727 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 78.3/100 reflects strong cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100), indicating operational efficiency.
Low DSRI of 0.7992 suggests that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales, reducing the risk of overstatement.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Công nghiệp Việt Nam (51.0%) may lead to potential conflicts of interest and less transparency in decision-making. However, the presence of institutional investors can provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor BTD's revenue growth and earnings quality metrics. Consider a wait-and-see approach until further clarity on financial practices is established.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.54

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.37

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-22.7%

Volatility

53.2%

Max Drawdown

-29.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

12.95P/E

P/B0.56

P/S0.11

ROE5.1%

ROA1.2%

EPS1443.13

BVPS28780.98

Gross Margin8.5%

Net Margin1.0%

D/E1.98

Current Ratio1.07

Rev Growth17.3%

Profit Growth14.5%

EV/EBITDA4.28

Div Yield4.4%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

6.4M

Charter Capital

64.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BTD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Công nghiệp Việt Nam

Inst

51.0%

3.3 trieu

nguyen-duy-hung

Indiv

10.1%

649.610

Hà Thị Kim Dung

Indiv

5.1%

323.610

america limited liability company

Inst

4.9%

314.900

Phan Thị Hồng Phúc

Indiv

1.5%

94.013

Trần Hữu Thạch

Indiv

1.0%

65.872

Phạm Phúc

Indiv

0.6%

36.698

nguyen-viet-hoa

Indiv

0.4%

24.928

Hoàng Thế Hiển

Indiv

0.1%

6.507

Board & Management

Phan Thị Hồng Phúc1.5%

Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Hữu Thạch1.0%

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Việt Hòa0.4%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Anh Linh

Giám đốc Tài chính

Hồ Đăng Khoa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Đỗ Văn Hùng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hữu Ý

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thế Phương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Quang Cường

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

CIP52.1%CI551.0%ACE2 links ICI51.0%SGN25.0%WCS23.6%DNM22.7%IDV18.0%SZL16.1%BAX16.1%TIP15.3%MTH13.6%

Computed 12/04/2026