CCL

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Đô thị Dầu khí Cửu Long

Bất động sảnCT

4.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.586

Current

4.900

Gap

+34.4%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

60.47%

Kd(1-t)

6.38%

D/(D+E)

39.53%

WACC

10.75%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.39%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

13.041

60%DCF Value

2.282

Blended Intrinsic

6.586

Value Decomposition

34%

66%

Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CCL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2019

-3.37

Low Risk

DSRI

1.005

GMI

1.236

AQI

0.739

SGI

1.603

DEPI

1.293

SGAI

0.742

TATA

-0.308

LVGI

1.272

CCL exhibits several concerning indicators suggesting potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -3.3718, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 63.2 indicates some strengths, the high SGI of 1.6026 and low eq_accrual of 12.2 raise red flags regarding revenue growth and accrual quality.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -3.3718 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
SGI of 1.6026 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.
Low eq_accrual score of 12.2 indicates poor quality of earnings, raising concerns about the reliability of reported profits.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 63.2 reflects decent cash conversion (100.0) and receivables management (100.0), indicating operational efficiency.
SGAI of 0.7423 suggests effective management of selling, general, and administrative expenses relative to revenue.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, with the largest shareholder holding 17.9%. This concentration can lead to potential governance issues and conflicts of interest, impacting minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on CCL, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and management's strategic plans. Monitoring future earnings reports for signs of improved accrual quality and transparency is advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.25

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-1.64

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-25.9%

Volatility

24.2%

Max Drawdown

-39.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

10.28P/E

P/B0.41

P/S0.95

ROE3.9%

ROA2.4%

EPS476.59

BVPS12080.09

Gross Margin24.6%

Net Margin9.3%

D/E0.65

Current Ratio2.35

Rev Growth1.5%

Profit Growth-33.0%

EV/EBITDA9.73

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

59.6M

Charter Capital

595.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CCL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Triệu Dõng

Indiv

17.9%

10.7 trieu

Trịnh Sướng

Indiv

10.5%

5.6 trieu

Tăng Lưỡng Nghi

Indiv

6.5%

3.1 trieu

Dương Thế Nghiêm

Indiv

6.3%

3.8 trieu

Chen Duxiong

Indiv

6.0%

1.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ Ngân hàng TMCP Đại chúng Việt nam

Inst

6.0%

1.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Cơ điện Lạnh

Inst

4.9%

1.2 trieu

Trương Bích Đào

Indiv

4.8%

2.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán AGRIBANK

Inst

4.4%

1.1 trieu

Huỳnh Minh Quân

Indiv

4.2%

1.5 trieu

Trần Thanh Tân

Indiv

4.2%

2.0 trieu

Nguyễn Ngọc Trâm

Indiv

3.4%

1.2 trieu

Hồng Duy Thức

Indiv

3.1%

820.000

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh

Indiv

1.0%

256.250

nguyen-kim-hong-dao

Indiv

0.6%

338.828

Board & Management

Nguyễn Triệu Dõng17.9%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Dương Thế Nghiêm6.3%

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thái Nguyên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Bùi Thị Kim Ngân

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Sông Gianh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Tân Khoa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trương Trúc Linh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Quốc Bảo

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Đặng Văn Út Anh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kinh doanh

Trần Thị Ngọc Huệ

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Bùi Thị Thanh Thảo

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

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Computed 12/04/2026