SGR

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Địa ốc Sài Gòn

Bất động sảnCT

15.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

12.856

Current

15.200

Gap

-15.4%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

44.84%

Kd(1-t)

6.38%

D/(D+E)

55.16%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

25.157

60%DCF Value

4.655

Blended Intrinsic

12.856

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SGR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.09

Moderate

DSRI

0.646

GMI

0.752

AQI

0.988

SGI

1.443

DEPI

0.946

SGAI

0.594

TATA

0.073

LVGI

0.839

SGR exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.0873, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation; however, the earnings quality score of 37.7/100, particularly the zero scores in cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings. The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, which may pose risks related to governance and decision-making.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 37.7/100, with 0.0/100 in cash conversion and revenue metrics indicating potential issues with earnings sustainability.
High concentration of ownership with top shareholders holding 85% of shares, which may lead to governance risks and lack of minority shareholder protection.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.0873 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower likelihood of accounting manipulation.
Strong receivables management indicated by an eq_receivables score of 100.0/100.

Ownership Risk

The top three shareholders control 79.7% of SGR, creating a risk of decisions that may not align with minority shareholder interests and potentially limiting transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SGR's cash flow and revenue metrics while considering the implications of concentrated ownership on governance. A cautious approach is advised until improvements in earnings quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.38

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-2.02

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-53.9%

Volatility

39.0%

Max Drawdown

-59.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

13.57P/E

P/B0.76

P/S4.86

ROE6.7%

ROA3.1%

EPS1119.93

BVPS20125.39

Gross Margin65.5%

Net Margin35.8%

D/E0.91

Current Ratio1.91

Rev Growth45.7%

Profit Growth32.1%

EV/EBITDA13.52

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

69.9M

Charter Capital

698.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SGR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Phạm Thu

Indiv

29.8%

20.8 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Cơ điện Lạnh

Inst

28.9%

17.3 trieu

Công ty TNHH Bất Động Sản Ree

Inst

21.0%

14.7 trieu

Phạm Đình Thành

Indiv

5.3%

3.7 trieu

Đỗ Thị Kim Thúy

Indiv

5.3%

698.248

Trần Thị Ga

Indiv

3.6%

2.5 trieu

Đặng Văn Phúc

Indiv

1.4%

963.137

Trần Quí Thanh

Indiv

1.2%

159.494

Đỗ Thị Trang

Indiv

1.2%

155.994

Trần Thị Tuyết Mai

Indiv

1.1%

681.819

Nguyễn Hồng Phát

Indiv

0.1%

73.471

Board & Management

Phạm Thu29.8%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Tuấn5.9%

Giám đốc khối/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc đầu tư

Phạm Đình Thành5.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Ga3.6%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Văn Phúc1.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Thái Quốc Dương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thị Bích Đào

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Xuân Khương

Giám đốc khối

Huỳnh Thanh Hải

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Võ Thăng Long

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Văn Khoa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Kiều Minh Long

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Oanh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Trọng Giáp

Giám đốc Tài chính

Nguyễn Thị Quý

Kế toán trưởng

Phạm Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

TBC60.4%SHP28.9%SZC28.9%TVD28.9%CCL28.9%NBC28.9%THT28.9%VAV28.9%HTV28.9%VIB28.9%QTP28.9%PMS11.3%

Computed 12/04/2026