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Utilities sector

TBC

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Thác Bà
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
35.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
46.955
Current
35.300
Gap
+33.0%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend1.89%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS2.500
Payout ratio96.0%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
2.500
Base Growth
1.89%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
46.955
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TBC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

70
Good
Accrual Quality
69
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
81
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.12
Low Risk
DSRI
0.697
GMI
1.009
AQI
0.877
SGI
1.045
DEPI
1.127
SGAI
0.952
TATA
-0.077
LVGI
1.057

TBC exhibits an elevated risk of earnings manipulation as indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -3.1216, significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score is relatively strong at 70.0/100, the zero score in revenue quality raises concerns about the sustainability and accuracy of reported revenues.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.1216 indicates potential earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 suggests significant issues with revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 70.0/100 indicates overall good earnings quality.
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 reflects strong cash flow relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top three institutional shareholders holding 150.8% of the company, indicating potential governance risks and limited minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly regarding revenue recognition practices, before considering an investment in TBC.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
8.74
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.56
Negative
Composite
58
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-5.1%
Volatility
23.5%
Max Drawdown
-12.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.94P/E
P/B1.92
P/S3.98
ROE17.1%
ROA12.1%
EPS3026.63
BVPS18396.49
Gross Margin60.4%
Net Margin34.1%
D/E0.12
Current Ratio2.24
Rev Growth4.5%
Profit Growth8.0%
EV/EBITDA6.19
Div Yield2.8%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
63.5M
Charter Capital
635.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TBC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Cơ điện Lạnh
Inst
60.4%
0
Công ty TNHH Năng Lượng Ree
Inst
60.4%
38.4 trieu
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 3
Inst
30.0%
19.1 trieu
Nguyễn Tấn Thắng
Indiv
4.3%
2.7 trieu
Board & Management
Nguyễn Hoài Linh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Thanh Hải
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hồ Bảo Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hồ Bảo Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hồ Văn Trung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lại Lệ Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Nguyễn Khánh Linh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Quang Quyền
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Quyền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Huỳnh Phương
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Hồng Minh
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Mạnh Cường
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hữu Hùng
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Lê Tuấn Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Lai Lệ Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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