RCL

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Địa ốc Chợ Lớn

Bất động sảnCT

11.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

10.972

Current

11.100

Gap

-1.1%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

58.87%

Kd(1-t)

6.64%

D/(D+E)

41.13%

WACC

10.74%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

25.957

60%DCF Value

983

Blended Intrinsic

10.972

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — RCL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-0.72

High Risk

DSRI

1.734

GMI

1.191

AQI

1.206

SGI

1.179

DEPI

0.715

SGAI

0.972

TATA

0.161

LVGI

0.960

RCL exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -0.7215, which is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 45.9/100, driven down by poor cash conversion metrics, raises further concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -0.7215 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 45.9/100, with an alarming eq_cash_conv score of 0.0/100, suggests significant issues with cash flow relative to reported earnings.

Positive Signals

High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which could be a positive aspect in terms of revenue collection.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly institutional, with the largest holding being 30% by Công ty Cổ phần Địa ốc Tân Bình. This concentration could pose risks related to governance and decision-making, particularly if these institutions have conflicting interests.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor RCL's financial disclosures and cash flow statements. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.01

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.09

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+11.4%

Volatility

52.9%

Max Drawdown

-16.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

22.01P/E

P/B0.60

P/S7.35

ROE2.7%

ROA1.6%

EPS563.28

BVPS20765.29

Gross Margin74.2%

Net Margin33.4%

D/E0.70

Current Ratio1.74

Rev Growth59.6%

Profit Growth428.3%

EV/EBITDA14.82

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

14.1M

Charter Capital

141.4B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for RCL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Địa ốc Tân Bình

Inst

30.0%

1.5 trieu

Tổng Công ty Địa ốc Sài Gòn

Inst

20.0%

2.8 trieu

Công Ty TNHH Thương Mại N.T.P

Inst

10.4%

1.4 trieu

Trần Văn Châu

Indiv

9.6%

1.3 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Cores

Inst

4.6%

632.210

Phạm Đình Bá Duy

Indiv

4.5%

622.500

Trần Hữu Hai

Indiv

4.5%

619.082

america limited liability company

Inst

4.4%

552.359

Nguyễn Khôi Nguyên

Indiv

3.9%

535.446

Shih Kuan Tung

Indiv

3.5%

268.278

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bảo hiểm Hùng Vương

Inst

3.3%

250.000

Quỹ Đầu tư Chứng khoán Sài Gòn A2

Inst

3.1%

157.800

Võ Thành Liêm

Indiv

2.6%

193.391

Công ty Cổ phần Hóa An

Inst

2.1%

105.900

Trần Thị Chi

Indiv

0.7%

98.110

Vũ Quốc Tuấn

Indiv

0.5%

74.800

Trần Thùy Dung

Indiv

0.5%

74.024

nguyen-xuan-dung

Indiv

0.2%

32.330

Huỳnh Bá Dưỡng

Indiv

0.2%

9.600

Phạm Thị Vui

Indiv

0.1%

5.544

Board & Management

Trần Văn Châu9.6%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Quốc Tuấn0.5%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thùy Dung0.5%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Dương Thế Quang

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Bảo Huy

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Duyên

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Quốc Dũng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thị Lan

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Anh Kiệt

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Ngọc Lan

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Tuấn Đạt

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

TBR51.0%SGN25.0%WCS23.6%DNM22.7%BTW2 links D1120.0%ITC20.0%IDV18.0%SZL16.1%BAX16.1%TIP15.3%ATA14.5%

Computed 12/04/2026