VNVALUEVNVALUE
Updated weekly
Back to Dashboard
Cyclicals sector

DTL

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Đại Thiên Lộc
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT
10.950
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
14.600
Current
10.950
Gap
+33.3%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA113.16B
Fair EV/EBITDA16.9x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
113.16B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
16.9x
-
Net Debt
1019.08B
=
Equity Value
14.600
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DTL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

9
Poor
Receivables
18
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2022

2.08
High Risk
DSRI
2.513
GMI
4.926
AQI
0.804
SGI
1.168
DEPI
0.507
SGAI
0.989
TATA
0.259
LVGI
1.411

DTL exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 2.0788, which exceeds the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the company's earnings quality score of 29.0/100 and low accrual metrics suggest poor earnings sustainability.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 2.0788 indicates potential earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 29.0/100, with eq_margin and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100, reflects severe issues in revenue recognition and profit margins.
Positive Signals
  • SGI of 1.1678 suggests some level of sales growth, which could indicate operational activity.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the largest shareholder holding 47.6%, raising concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest. This concentration can lead to decisions that may not align with minority shareholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider conducting further due diligence on DTL's financial practices and governance structure before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
1/9
Weak
Z-Score
0.97
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.52
Positive
Composite
48
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+36.1%
Volatility
29.8%
Max Drawdown
-26.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-6.26P/E
P/B1.19
P/S0.41
ROE-17.3%
ROA-5.8%
EPS-1972.71
BVPS10389.42
Gross Margin-1.4%
Net Margin-6.5%
D/E2.21
Current Ratio1.03
Rev Growth-5.3%
Profit Growth-2949.9%
EV/EBITDA586.82
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
61.4M
Charter Capital
614.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Kim loại
Sub-industry
Thép và sản phẩm thép
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DTL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
nguyen-thanh-nghia
Indiv
47.6%
29.2 trieu
Công ty TNHH Sản Xuất Thép Tâm Đức
Inst
16.8%
10.3 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Bích Liên
Indiv
12.9%
7.9 trieu
nguyen-thanh-loan
Indiv
10.7%
6.2 trieu
nguyen-thanh-dung
Indiv
4.2%
2.6 trieu
Nguyễn Ứng Vũ
Indiv
4.1%
2.4 trieu
nguyen-thanh-truc
Indiv
4.0%
2.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SSI
Inst
2.6%
1.6 trieu
Lê Bá Phương
Indiv
0.2%
137.500
Lê Thị Nga Phương
Indiv
0.2%
29.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thanh Nghĩa47.6%
Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Bích Liên12.9%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Dung4.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thu Thảo
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Võ Thanh Lâm
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lâm Thị Kim Phượng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Ngọc Khang
Kế toán trưởng
Đoàn Thị Bích Thúy
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Thu
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Trương Mạnh Lân
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →