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Real Estate sector

TBR

Real Estate
Công ty Cổ phần Địa ốc Tân Bình
Bất động sảnCT
7.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
11.582
Current
7.800
Gap
+48.5%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
94.31%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.10%
x
D/(D+E)
5.69%
=
WACC
13.17%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
25.750
60%DCF Value
2.137
Blended Intrinsic
11.582
Value Decomposition
36%
64%
Explicit period (36%)Terminal value (64%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TBR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

19
Poor
Accrual Quality
58
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
3
Revenue Quality
25

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.61
Low Risk
DSRI
0.295
GMI
0.971
AQI
1.277
SGI
0.564
DEPI
0.857
SGAI
4.635
TATA
0.109
LVGI
1.161

TBR displays significant red flags indicative of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -3.6064, well below the threshold of -1.78. The low earnings quality score of 18.5/100 further raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.6064 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 18.5/100 suggests poor earnings quality, particularly with cash conversion at 0.0/100 and receivables at 0.0/100.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.2947 indicates a lower risk of revenue manipulation through inventory, suggesting better inventory management.
  • SGI of 0.5636 indicates a decrease in sales growth, which could be a positive signal if it reflects a strategic shift rather than distress.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Địa ốc Sài Gòn holding 51.0%, which may pose risks related to governance and minority shareholder rights.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on TBR, focusing on cash flow statements and management's strategic direction, before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.81
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.09
Positive
Composite
41
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.6%
Volatility
102.1%
Max Drawdown
-34.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
24.96P/E
P/B0.32
P/S6.95
ROE1.8%
ROA1.7%
EPS362.42
BVPS20599.78
Gross Margin65.2%
Net Margin38.7%
D/E0.06
Current Ratio11.03
Rev Growth-43.6%
Profit Growth3.1%
EV/EBITDA-2.14
Div Yield5.4%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
8.1M
Charter Capital
80.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TBR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Địa ốc Sài Gòn
Inst
51.0%
4.1 trieu
Cao Toàn Thắng
Indiv
6.2%
499.700
Công ty Tài chính Tổng hợp Cổ phần Điện Lực
Inst
5.5%
442.510
Lê Văn Gia
Indiv
1.2%
97.048
Vũ Thị Thanh Thủy
Indiv
0.8%
65.610
Lê Quốc Sử
Indiv
0.7%
56.340
nguyen-tien-dung
Indiv
0.4%
31.820
Bùi Nguyên Bảo
Indiv
0.2%
14.900
Đinh Quang Vĩnh
Indiv
0.1%
12.400
Lê Thị Oanh
Indiv
0.1%
11.000
Board & Management
Lê Quốc Sử0.7%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Tiến Dũng0.4%
Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Hồ Quốc Bình
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Thúy Phượng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Thanh Tuyền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Anh Tuấn
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hồ Lan
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Huệ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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