DVN

Consumer

Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam - CTCP

Y tế/Dược phẩmCT

20.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

27.943

Current

20.500

Gap

+36.3%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Y tế→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

52.11%

Kd(1-t)

7.43%

D/(D+E)

47.89%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.77%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→468.10B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

468.10B

Growth Rate

3.77%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

27.943

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DVN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.69

Elevated

DSRI

1.136

GMI

1.097

AQI

1.208

SGI

1.025

DEPI

1.011

SGAI

0.952

TATA

0.111

LVGI

1.050

The Beneish M-Score of -1.6857 indicates that DVN is close to the threshold for potential earnings manipulation, suggesting heightened risk. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 40.3/100 reflects significant concerns, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.6857 is just above the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings quality score of 40.3/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 93.2/100 suggests strong management of receivables, indicating potential reliability in cash inflows.
SGAI of 0.9522 indicates effective cost management relative to sales, which could support profitability.

Ownership Risk

With 65.0% of shares held by a state-owned enterprise, there is a risk of political influence affecting corporate governance and decision-making. This concentrated ownership may limit minority shareholders' influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor DVN's financial disclosures for signs of earnings manipulation and consider reducing exposure until there is improvement in cash conversion metrics and overall earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.28

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.47

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-7.4%

Volatility

33.3%

Max Drawdown

-33.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.47P/E

P/B1.45

P/S0.93

ROE18.0%

ROA8.9%

EPS2611.59

BVPS15276.14

Gross Margin9.8%

Net Margin10.9%

D/E0.92

Current Ratio1.32

Rev Growth2.9%

Profit Growth47.1%

EV/EBITDA39.64

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

237.0M

Charter Capital

2370.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Y tế

Industry (ICB L3)

Dược phẩm

Sub-industry

Dược phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DVN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước

State

65.0%

154.1 trieu

Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước

State

65.0%

154.1 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần SAM Holdings

Inst

4.8%

11.8 trieu

Quỹ Đầu tư Cơ Hội PVI

Inst

2.8%

6.5 trieu

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Khái

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

NGÔ THỊ BÍCH THẢO

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Văn Sơn

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Văn Hải

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hàn Thị Khánh Vinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Xuân Hương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Anh Tuấn

Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Nguyễn Hồng Nhung

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đinh Xuân Hấn

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

SJG2 links MIE2 links TVN2 links VGV2 links SLD85.7%VNP2 links SEA2 links QTC2 links VGT2 links CAG2 links BMI2 links VXB2 links

Computed 12/04/2026