QTC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Công trình Giao thông Vận tải Quảng Nam

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

33.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

18.899

Current

33.800

Gap

-44.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

68.22%

Kd(1-t)

5.92%

D/(D+E)

31.78%

WACC

10.21%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.32%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

18.700

50%DCF Value

19.098

Blended Intrinsic

18.899

Value Decomposition

36%

64%

Explicit period (36%)Terminal value (64%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — QTC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.10

Moderate

DSRI

0.745

GMI

0.883

AQI

0.799

SGI

1.191

DEPI

0.935

SGAI

1.121

TATA

0.123

LVGI

0.877

QTC's Beneish M-Score of -2.0989 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 44.4/100, particularly the 0.0/100 in cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 44.4/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100 indicating potential issues in converting earnings into actual cash flow.
Significant SGI of 1.1909 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.0989 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, suggesting more reliable financial reporting.
High receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which could be a positive sign for cash flow management.

Ownership Risk

The state-owned enterprise (SOE) holds a significant 53.8% stake, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and less transparency in decision-making processes. However, the presence of a strong institutional investor could provide some oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor QTC's cash flow and revenue generation capabilities, given the low cash conversion score. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach until there are signs of improved earnings quality and cash flow sustainability.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.66

Safe Zone

Sharpe

1.07

Excellent

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+70.9%

Volatility

80.2%

Max Drawdown

-26.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

30.36P/E

P/B2.18

P/S1.01

ROE7.2%

ROA4.7%

EPS1086.80

BVPS15139.10

Gross Margin11.5%

Net Margin3.3%

D/E0.47

Current Ratio2.44

Rev Growth18.9%

Profit Growth30.5%

EV/EBITDA15.02

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.7M

Charter Capital

27.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for QTC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước

State

53.8%

1.5 trieu

nguyen-thi-mai-lan

Indiv

9.2%

247.700

Công ty Cổ Phần Sách - Thiết Bị Trường Học Long An

Inst

3.4%

90.800

Trần Mộng Nhung

Indiv

0.8%

22.500

Phan Đình Ngô

Indiv

0.6%

15.600

Trần Bê

Indiv

0.6%

15.100

nguyen-cao-cuong

Indiv

0.3%

7.200

Trần Việt Thắng

Indiv

0.2%

5.575

Đặng Thơ

Indiv

0.2%

4.545

Nguyễn Lương Bê

Indiv

0.1%

3.600

Nguyễn Văn Bính

Indiv

0.1%

3.400

Board & Management

Nguyễn Cao Cường0.3%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Thơ0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Đoàn Văn Dũng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Ngọc Hưng

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Văn Xí

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Hiếu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Lễ

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Sỹ

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Hiếu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

SJG99.8%MIE99.6%TVN93.9%VGV87.3%VNP65.8%DVN2 links SEA63.4%VGT53.8%CAG53.8%BMI53.8%VXB53.8%HVN53.8%

Computed 12/04/2026