VGV

Real Estate

Tổng Công ty Tư vấn Xây dựng Việt Nam - CTCP

Bất động sảnCT

53.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

30.045

Current

53.400

Gap

-43.7%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

41.82%

Kd(1-t)

6.53%

D/(D+E)

58.18%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

14.627

60%DCF Value

40.324

Blended Intrinsic

30.045

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VGV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.51

Low Risk

DSRI

0.789

GMI

1.089

AQI

0.901

SGI

1.498

DEPI

1.666

SGAI

0.984

TATA

-0.071

LVGI

1.106

VGV exhibits several concerning indicators of potential financial manipulation, as suggested by its Beneish M-Score of -2.5108, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the company also demonstrates strong earnings quality metrics, particularly in cash conversion and receivables, which may indicate operational efficiency.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.5108 indicates potential earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
SGI of 1.4975 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.
EQ Margin score of 59.4/100 is relatively low, indicating potential issues with profitability.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 71.8/100 reflects decent overall earnings quality, particularly with a perfect cash conversion score of 100.0/100.
Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily skewed, with 87.3% held by the state-owned enterprise, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced transparency in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor VGV's financial disclosures and operational performance, particularly given the elevated risk of earnings manipulation. A deeper analysis of growth sustainability and management practices is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.42

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.63

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+37.4%

Volatility

109.0%

Max Drawdown

-22.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

44.46P/E

P/B4.57

P/S1.73

ROE10.3%

ROA3.4%

EPS1201.56

BVPS11701.26

Gross Margin17.2%

Net Margin3.9%

D/E1.78

Current Ratio1.30

Rev Growth49.8%

Profit Growth-6.8%

EV/EBITDA33.58

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

35.8M

Charter Capital

357.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VGV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước

State

87.3%

31.2 trieu

Oriental Consultants Co., Ltd

Inst

6.9%

2.5 trieu

Nguyễn Huy Khanh

Indiv

0.4%

152.900

Nguyễn Lâm Cường

Indiv

0.3%

102.200

Trần Bình Trọng

Indiv

0.2%

63.100

Thân Hồng Linh

Indiv

0.1%

52.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Lâm Cường0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Bình Trọng0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Thân Hồng Linh0.1%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Xuân Hải

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Vũ Thành

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Tố Trinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Đoan Trang

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Văn Phúc

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát/Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Đức Toàn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Hoàng Khánh Duy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Kiểu Bích Hoa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đinh Thị Thủy

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Đình Thi

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

SJG99.8%MIE99.6%TVN93.9%VNP87.3%DVN2 links SEA87.3%QTC87.3%VGT87.3%CAG87.3%BMI87.3%VXB87.3%HVN87.3%

Computed 12/04/2026