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Consumer sector

VGT

Consumer
Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT
12.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
8.165
Current
12.400
Gap
-34.1%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
47.78%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.46%
x
D/(D+E)
52.22%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF570.01B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
570.01B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
8.165
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VGT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

66
Fair
Accrual Quality
99
Cash Conversion
83
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.51
Low Risk
DSRI
0.968
GMI
0.837
AQI
1.095
SGI
1.062
DEPI
0.992
SGAI
1.003
TATA
-0.002
LVGI
0.980

VGT shows a Beneish M-Score of -2.507, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue and margin quality, which could pose risks in the context of Vietnamese accounting practices.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 65.6/100 indicates potential issues, particularly with revenue (0.0/100) and margin quality (0.0/100), suggesting possible overstatement of revenues.
  • The high concentration of ownership by the state (53.5%) may lead to governance issues and lack of accountability.
Positive Signals
  • Strong accrual quality score of 99.2/100 indicates that the company is effectively converting earnings into cash.
  • The DSRI of 0.9676 suggests that the company is managing its receivables well relative to sales, which is a positive sign.
Ownership Risk

The significant state ownership (53.5%) may introduce risks related to political influence and operational inefficiencies, potentially impacting shareholder value.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VGT's revenue recognition practices and consider a deeper analysis of its governance structure before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.71
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.00
Negative
Composite
48
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+2.9%
Volatility
38.3%
Max Drawdown
-43.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.77P/E
P/B0.92
P/S0.37
ROE12.3%
ROA4.4%
EPS1745.44
BVPS14725.51
Gross Margin12.9%
Net Margin4.7%
D/E1.05
Current Ratio1.33
Rev Growth6.1%
Profit Growth169.0%
EV/EBITDA7.99
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
500.0M
Charter Capital
5000.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng cá nhân
Sub-industry
Hàng May mặc
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VGT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước
State
53.5%
267.4 trieu
Itochu Corporation
Inst
13.0%
65.0 trieu
Bùi Mạnh Hùng
Indiv
5.0%
24.8 trieu
Nguyễn Xuân Đông
Indiv
3.0%
15.0 trieu
Trần Quang Nghị
Indiv
2.0%
10.0 trieu
balestrand limited
Inst
1.0%
5.0 trieu
amersham industries limited
Inst
1.0%
4.8 trieu
Wareham Group Limited
Inst
0.8%
4.0 trieu
Grinling International Limited
Inst
0.8%
4.0 trieu
Veil Holdings Limited
Inst
0.6%
3.0 trieu
Board & Management
Nguyễn Xuân Đông3.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Quang Nghị2.0%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đoàn Thị Thu Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Tiến Trường
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Mạc Thuấn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Trung Hải
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đặng Vũ Hùng
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Nguyên Hạnh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Cao Hữu Hiếu
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đặng Thị Hồng Lê
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Hồng Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Ngọc Cách
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Đức Trị
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Lê Trà My
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Văn Tân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Thị Thu Hằng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Tạ Hữu Doanh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
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