FCS

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Lương thực Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

6.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

9.222

Current

6.900

Gap

+33.7%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

16.67%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

83.33%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→13.98B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

13.98B

Growth Rate

4.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

9.222

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — FCS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.99

Low Risk

DSRI

1.047

GMI

0.795

AQI

0.993

SGI

0.806

DEPI

0.000

SGAI

1.232

TATA

-0.023

LVGI

1.000

FCS exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.9861, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 67.7/100 indicates reasonable performance, the low revenue and margin metrics raise red flags about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.9861 indicates potential earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality metrics show eq_margin and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100, suggesting significant issues with revenue recognition and profitability.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 67.7/100 indicates overall decent earnings quality, with particularly strong cash conversion at 100.0/100.
Ownership by large institutional investors (59.8% by Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam) may provide stability and governance.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership (over 59% by a single institution) could lead to governance risks, as minority shareholders may have limited influence over corporate decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor FCS's financial disclosures and operational performance, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and potential governance issues stemming from concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.16

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.11

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-7.1%

Volatility

148.5%

Max Drawdown

-59.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

728.82P/E

P/B2.76

P/S0.52

ROE0.4%

ROA0.0%

EPS9.06

BVPS2392.47

Gross Margin20.8%

Net Margin0.1%

D/E10.77

Current Ratio0.65

Rev Growth-19.4%

Profit Growth115.6%

EV/EBITDA16.19

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

29.4M

Charter Capital

294.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for FCS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam

Inst

59.8%

15.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Song Mộc

Inst

18.8%

5.5 trieu

Tổng Công ty Xây dựng Thủy lợi 4 - Công ty Cổ phần

State

14.7%

4.3 trieu

Board & Management

Huỳnh Thị Phượng

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Anh Vũ

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Đoàn Thu

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thành Vinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Thân Tấn Thuận

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Nguyễn Thanh Bình

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Quang Tâm

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trương Tiến Dũng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

ĐỖ NGỌC NGA

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phan Lê Duy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Xuân Mai

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thanh Điền

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

KGM83.3%TCJ65.4%BTG60.0%MCF60.0%SAF59.8%BLT59.8%CMN59.8%AFX59.8%VOS59.8%

Computed 12/04/2026