CMN

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Lương thực Thực phẩm Colusa - Miliket

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

63.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

54.072

Current

63.500

Gap

-14.8%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

53.38%

Kd(1-t)

6.21%

D/(D+E)

46.62%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.90%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→13.07B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

13.07B

Growth Rate

4.90%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

54.072

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CMN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-0.97

High Risk

DSRI

1.128

GMI

0.909

AQI

3.528

SGI

1.028

DEPI

0.779

SGAI

1.161

TATA

0.094

LVGI

0.987

CMN presents a moderate risk profile with a Beneish M-Score of -0.9717, indicating no immediate signs of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in cash conversion, which may raise concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 55.4/100 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability, particularly a cash conversion score of 0.0/100.
The SGI of 1.0284 suggests a slight increase in sales, but the low AQI of 3.5282 signals potential quality issues in earnings.

Positive Signals

The DSRI of 1.1278 is below the manipulation threshold, suggesting that inventory levels are not excessively rising compared to sales.
High receivables score of 88.1/100 indicates effective management of credit sales.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top three institutional shareholders holding over 70% of shares, which could lead to governance risks if interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and earnings quality metrics, particularly the cash conversion aspect, while considering the concentrated ownership structure before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.78

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.03

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-5.5%

Volatility

91.8%

Max Drawdown

-35.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

17.96P/E

P/B2.20

P/S0.48

ROE14.7%

ROA7.8%

EPS4802.45

BVPS33400.32

Gross Margin27.7%

Net Margin3.1%

D/E0.87

Current Ratio2.05

Rev Growth2.9%

Profit Growth10.2%

EV/EBITDA16.73

Div Yield1.8%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

4.8M

Charter Capital

48.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CMN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam

Inst

30.7%

1.5 trieu

Công ty TNHH Dịch Vụ Và Thương Mại Mesa

Inst

20.1%

963.600

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Sb Space Holding

Inst

20.0%

960.000

Trịnh Việt Dũng

Indiv

9.7%

466.100

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Vi Na

Inst

4.9%

234.500

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Thiên Hải

Inst

3.8%

183.400

Lưu Thị Tuyết Hương

Indiv

1.1%

55.200

Lưu Thị Tuyết Mai

Indiv

0.3%

16.700

Board & Management

Lưu Thị Tuyết Mai0.3%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Ngọc Vinh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Mai Hương

Kế toán trưởng

Nghiêm Xuân Toàn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Tuấn Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Võ Văn Út

Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Anh Tuấn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Nguyên Bình

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Đặng Khánh Toàn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Hùng

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Huỳnh Kim Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Bích Trâm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

KGM83.3%TCJ65.4%BTG60.0%MCF60.0%FCS59.8%SAF51.3%BLT51.0%VPR2 links AFX30.7%VOS30.7%SPV22.1%LDW20.1%

Computed 12/04/2026