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Consumer sector

SAF

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Lương thực Thực phẩm SAFOCO
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
54.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
61.686
Current
54.000
Gap
+14.2%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
69.04%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.29%
x
D/(D+E)
30.96%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend6.93%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF36.62B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
36.62B
Growth Rate
6.93%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
61.686
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SAF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

63
Fair
Accrual Quality
85
Cash Conversion
64
Receivables
53
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2017

-0.58
High Risk
DSRI
0.779
GMI
0.911
AQI
8.395
SGI
1.061
DEPI
0.878
SGAI
1.087
TATA
-0.192
LVGI
0.894

SAF exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -0.5791, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. The earnings quality score of 77.1/100, particularly strong cash conversion and receivables metrics, suggests robust operational performance.

Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 77.1/100 indicates strong overall earnings quality.
  • Cash conversion and receivables metrics are perfect at 100.0/100, showing effective management of cash flows and receivables.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top two shareholders holding 76% of the shares, which could lead to potential governance risks and limited minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor the concentration of ownership closely, while considering the strong earnings quality metrics as a positive indicator for potential investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
9.38
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.39
Negative
Composite
45
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-18.5%
Volatility
47.2%
Max Drawdown
-26.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.00P/E
P/B3.78
P/S0.92
ROE27.1%
ROA18.8%
EPS4035.05
BVPS14947.30
Gross Margin20.1%
Net Margin6.6%
D/E0.44
Current Ratio2.98
Rev Growth1.9%
Profit Growth2.1%
EV/EBITDA11.11
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
12.0M
Charter Capital
120.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SAF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam
Inst
51.3%
6.2 trieu
Công ty TNHH Quản Lý Đầu Tư Giá Trị Việt
Inst
24.7%
3.0 trieu
trần văn hậu
Indiv
17.5%
1.4 trieu
trần văn hậu
Indiv
17.5%
1.4 trieu
Phạm Thị Thu Hồng
Indiv
14.1%
1.7 trieu
Vũ Quốc Hưng
Indiv
5.0%
601.400
Trần Ngọc Vĩnh
Indiv
3.0%
304.522
Trần Văn Tuấn
Indiv
2.1%
124.000
Nguyễn Công Minh Khoa
Indiv
0.4%
42.789
Lưu Quang Huy
Indiv
0.2%
27.894
Lê Thị Kim Phượng
Indiv
0.2%
16.854
Phạm Thị Thu Minh
Indiv
0.1%
15.750
Lưu Thị Hồng Hương
Indiv
0.1%
15.570
Board & Management
Phạm Thị Thu Hồng14.1%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Công Minh Khoa0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Hoàng Thao
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Nga
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Hoài
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lưu Nguyễn Chí Nhân
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Trương Nguyện
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Vũ Hằng
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Thị Thu Huyền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Hoàng Ngân
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thu Huyền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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