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Consumer sector

KGM

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Kiên Giang
Bán lẻCT
5.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
380.385
Current
5.800
Gap
+500.0%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTBán lẻConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Bán lẻ" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
25.64%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.35%
x
D/(D+E)
74.36%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.24%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF553.56B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
553.56B
Growth Rate
5.24%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
380.385
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — KGM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

25
Poor
Accrual Quality
0
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
1
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-7.20
Low Risk
DSRI
0.441
GMI
0.792
AQI
1.219
SGI
0.707
DEPI
1.004
SGAI
1.290
TATA
-0.843
LVGI
0.783

KGM exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -7.2004, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The low earnings quality score of 25.1/100, particularly the zero scores in accruals and receivables, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -7.2004 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 25.1/100, with eq_accrual at 0.0/100 and eq_receivables at 0.0/100, suggests poor earnings quality.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.4408 indicates that the company's inventory is well-managed relative to sales, which could imply operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 83.3% held by Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam, which may lead to governance risks and lack of minority shareholder protection.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering KGM, particularly focusing on cash flow sustainability and governance practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
8.52
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.50
Negative
Composite
43
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-12.3%
Volatility
21.9%
Max Drawdown
-30.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.83P/E
P/B0.52
P/S0.03
ROE5.4%
ROA1.7%
EPS569.44
BVPS10794.44
Gross Margin10.7%
Net Margin0.3%
D/E1.40
Current Ratio1.29
Rev Growth-29.3%
Profit Growth176.7%
EV/EBITDA4.49
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
25.4M
Charter Capital
254.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Bán lẻ
Sub-industry
Bán lẻ phức hợp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for KGM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam
Inst
83.3%
21.2 trieu
Bạch Ngọc Văn
Indiv
1.1%
268.000
Dương Thị Thanh Nguyệt
Indiv
0.4%
101.500
nguyen-thanh-son
Indiv
0.2%
51.500
Board & Management
Bạch Ngọc Văn1.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Dương Thị Thanh Nguyệt0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Đoàn Huỳnh Dũng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Trường Giang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Điệp
Kế toán trưởng
Trần Thị Mai Trinh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Thị Minh Hiền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Minh Trung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Hùng Minh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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