KGM

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Kiên Giang

VietnamConsumerBán lẻUPCOMCT

5.600

VND · Close 3 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 5.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 6.539

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 3 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bán lẻ→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Bán lẻ” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.847

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.82%

E/(D+E)

41.41%

Kd(1-t)

8.26%

D/(D+E)

58.59%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→38.07B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→5.600

Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

6.539

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.00%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow38.1 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
8.0%	5.677	5.677	5.677	5.981	5.981
9.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

KGM among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, KGM marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is KGM. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	488	854	866	805	707	679	775	777	765	666	344	587	165
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	63	22	149	473	26	112	129	91	119	150	51	41	36
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	81	259	169	95	358	63	392	158	104	28	144	170	58
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	3	0.7	2	10	50	14	4	21	12	6	94	57	21
Net Inventories	·	233	525	492	195	288	481	233	509	532	472	142	371	54
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	249	535	525	215	328	528	247	528	532	472	142	376	54
Other current assets	·	111	48	54	42	35	22	19	19	10	16	6	6	17
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.6	0.5
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	170	182	192	203	210	232	254	276	289	304	279	284	279
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.08	0.08	0.08	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0	0	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.08	0.08	0.08	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0	0	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	123	122	134	145	153	176	210	230	245	299	273	282	276
Tangible fixed assets	·	123	122	134	145	153	176	196	217	231	247	230	235	228
Intagible fixed assets	·	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	14	14	14	51	43	43	41
Other non-current assets	·	45	58	56	57	55	55	42	44	42	3	5	1	4
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	45	58	56	57	55	55	42	44	42	3	5	1	4
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	658	1,036	1,057	1,008	917	911	1,029	1,053	1,054	970	623	871	445
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	383	771	786	744	646	630	772	785	769	711	383	617	191
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	380	769	783	741	646	628	769	781	722	709	380	612	186
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	180	690	380	617	531	256	676	584	661	503	367	510	155
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	34	7	14	45	82	55	48	135	21	138	0.2	25	11
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	3	2	3	3	0	2	3	4	46	2	4	5	6
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	3	2	3	3	0	2	3	4	4	2	4	5	6
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	275	265	271	264	271	281	257	268	285	259	239	253	253
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	275	265	271	264	271	281	257	268	285	259	239	253	253
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	254	254	254	254	254	254	254	254	254	254	235	224	201
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	6	5	4	4	3	1	1	0.8	0.8	0	28	39	62
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	14	5	13	6	14	25	1	13	30	5	−24	−10	−10
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	658	1,036	1,057	1,008	917	911	1,029	1,053	1,054	970	623	871	445
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	254	254	254	254	254	254	254	254	254	254	235	224	201

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −7.20 · 0th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −7.18

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.441

GMI

0.792

AQI

1.219

SGI

0.707

DEPI

1.004

SGAI

1.290

TATA

−0.843

LVGI

0.783

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 2.2478th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.5%25th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

8/9

Strong

Z-Score

8.54

Safe Zone

Sharpe

−0.21

Negative

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.69×Interest Burden0.93×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover7.95×Leverage2.40=ROE5.3%

Price Risk

Momentum

−1.8%

Volatility

50.0%

Max Drawdown

−17.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

9.83P/E

P/B: 0.52
P/S: 0.03
ROE: 5.4%
ROA: 1.7%
EPS: 569
BVPS: 10.794
Gross Margin: 10.7%
Net Margin: 0.3%
D/E: 0.67
Current Ratio: 1.29
Rev Growth: −29.3%
Profit Growth: +176.7%
EV/EBITDA: 4.49
Div Yield: 3.1%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 25.4M
Charter Capital: 254B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3): Bán lẻ
Sub-industry: Bán lẻ phức hợp
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for KGM. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam

Inst

83.3%

21.2M

2026-06-30

Bạch Ngọc Văn

Indiv

1.1%

274,200

2026-06-30

Dương Thị Thanh Nguyệt

Indiv

0.4%

101,500

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Thanh Sơn

Indiv

0.2%

51,500

2020-12-31

Board & Management

Bạch Ngọc Văn1.1%

Chairman of Management Board

Dương Thị Thanh Nguyệt0.4%

Vice Chairman of Management Board/General Director

Trần Tú Khanh

Member of Management Board

Mai Thành Công

Vice Chairman of Management Board

Trần Thị Điệp

Chief Accountant

Nguyễn Mai Thái Sơn

Deputy General Director

Lê Văn Vàng

Person in charge of Corporate governace

Cao Văn Nghị

Member of Supervisors Board

Top connections

TCJ83.3%MCF83.3%BTG83.3%FCS83.3%SAF83.3%BLT83.3%CMN83.3%AFX83.3%VOS83.3%

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

KGM among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

KGM among Consumer