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Real Estate sector

VCR

Real Estate
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Du lịch Vinaconex
Bất động sảnCT
43.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
3.543
Current
43.000
Gap
-91.8%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
30.54%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.40%
x
D/(D+E)
69.46%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
7.086
60%DCF Value
-1.924
Blended Intrinsic
3.543
Value Decomposition
33%
67%
Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VCR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

51
Fair
Accrual Quality
68
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
24

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.13
Low Risk
DSRI
0.736
GMI
0.945
AQI
1.007
SGI
1.009
DEPI
1.586
SGAI
1.397
TATA
-0.080
LVGI
1.043

VCR displays several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -3.1314, which is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 50.5 suggests some strengths, the low cash conversion and revenue metrics raise significant concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.1314 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings quality metrics show a cash conversion score of only 40.0/100, suggesting poor cash flow relative to earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated among a few institutional investors, with the top five shareholders holding over 118% of the company, which raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest and lack of independent oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should proceed with caution, closely monitoring cash flow and revenue recognition practices. It may be prudent to wait for clearer signs of improved earnings quality before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.87
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.35
Positive
Composite
48
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+88.3%
Volatility
106.5%
Max Drawdown
-35.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-87.98P/E
P/B4.52
P/S2154.27
ROE-5.0%
ROA-1.5%
EPS-368.27
BVPS7168.51
Gross Margin14.4%
Net Margin-2448.7%
D/E2.63
Current Ratio0.11
Rev Growth0.9%
Profit Growth-254.2%
EV/EBITDA-286.44
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
210.0M
Charter Capital
2100.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VCR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Khu Đông - Phú Quốc
Inst
24.5%
51.5 trieu
Công ty TNHH Imperia An Phú
Inst
24.1%
50.7 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Sàn Giao Dịch Bất Động Sản Hà Nội Anpha
Inst
23.1%
48.4 trieu
Công ty TNHH Kinh Doanh Quốc Tế Silver Field
Inst
22.5%
47.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán AGRIBANK
Inst
1.4%
2.5 trieu
Board & Management
Trần Thị Thu Hồng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đào Ngọc Thanh
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Quang Phụng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyên Tuấn Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Văn Mậu
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Thái Dương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Mạnh Hùng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Doãn Dũng
Kế toán trưởng
Lê Văn Huy
Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Ngọc Kiên
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Vũ Văn Mạnh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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