GMX

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Gạch ngói Gốm xây dựng Mỹ Xuân

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

16.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

61.075

Current

16.600

Gap

+267.9%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

73.12%

Kd(1-t)

6.32%

D/(D+E)

26.88%

WACC

10.62%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.23%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

23.226

50%DCF Value

98.924

Blended Intrinsic

61.075

Value Decomposition

37%

63%

Explicit period (37%)Terminal value (63%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GMX

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.86

Low Risk

DSRI

0.810

GMI

1.037

AQI

1.086

SGI

0.852

DEPI

0.847

SGAI

1.066

TATA

-0.027

LVGI

0.930

GMX presents a moderate risk profile with a Beneish M-Score of -2.8626, indicating no immediate signs of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics show some weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition, which could raise concerns about sustainability.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 74.9/100 indicates potential issues, especially with an eq_revenue score of 0.0/100, suggesting significant discrepancies in revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.8626 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is relatively fragmented with no single shareholder holding a controlling stake, which may reduce the risk of insider manipulation but could also lead to governance challenges.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor GMX's revenue recognition practices and consider conducting further due diligence on its earnings quality, particularly in light of the low revenue score.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

8/9

Strong

Z-Score

6.04

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.09

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+3.0%

Volatility

51.8%

Max Drawdown

-17.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.66P/E

P/B1.33

P/S0.87

ROE15.2%

ROA11.9%

EPS1940.01

BVPS12599.56

Gross Margin32.2%

Net Margin10.1%

D/E0.18

Current Ratio1.86

Rev Growth5.7%

Profit Growth5.9%

EV/EBITDA4.54

Div Yield3.6%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

9.0M

Charter Capital

90.4B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GMX — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Gia Thy

Inst

12.7%

1.2 trieu

Dư Thị Thanh Hương

Indiv

6.8%

615.161

Reverie LTD

Inst

5.1%

458.100

Đoàn Thị Dung

Indiv

4.0%

363.835

nguyen-phan-ngoc-dung

Indiv

3.9%

353.940

Phạm Văn Hậu

Indiv

3.7%

335.563

Trần Thị Ngọc Chăm

Indiv

3.3%

294.950

Peter Eric Dennis

Indiv

3.0%

268.100

Nguyễn Văn Sơn

Indiv

2.5%

223.927

Dư Quốc Trung

Indiv

2.4%

220.660

Nguyễn Hữu Thực

Indiv

2.0%

104.000

Nguyễn Thế Đô

Indiv

1.5%

132.080

Công ty CP Đầu Tư Xây Dựng Gia Thắng

Inst

1.1%

100.000

Nguyễn Thái Học

Indiv

1.1%

100.005

Dư Quốc Tuấn

Indiv

1.1%

98.158

Ngô Thành Cương

Indiv

1.0%

89.433

Lưu Ngọc Thanh

Indiv

0.9%

77.320

Lưu Thanh Minh

Indiv

0.8%

71.650

PHẠM THỊ HƯƠNG DUYÊN

Indiv

0.7%

60.148

Trần Thị Cảnh

Indiv

0.4%

35.360

Nguyễn Văn Hiếu

Indiv

0.2%

18.944

Hoàng Văn Thái

Indiv

0.2%

17.599

Phạm Trần Lực

Indiv

0.2%

10.000

Board & Management

Phạm Văn Hậu3.7%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Sơn2.5%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Dư Quốc Trung2.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Thành Cương1.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

PHẠM THỊ HƯƠNG DUYÊN0.7%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Cảnh0.4%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Văn Hiếu0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Sản xuất

Hoàng Văn Thái0.2%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hữu Quang

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Bích

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Lưu Thị Mai

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Lưu Thanh Bình

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

BHC14.0%HCM14.0%CCI2 links THG2 links HCC2 links EBS6.9%KKC6.1%ADC6.0%EID5.6%SIV5.4%PIA5.2%HUT5.0%

Computed 12/04/2026