HCC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Bê tông Hòa Cầm - Intimex

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

24.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

46.510

Current

24.500

Gap

+89.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

60.07%

Kd(1-t)

6.38%

D/(D+E)

39.93%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

23.691

50%DCF Value

69.330

Blended Intrinsic

46.510

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HCC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2018

-1.69

Elevated

DSRI

1.317

GMI

1.006

AQI

0.822

SGI

0.993

DEPI

1.143

SGAI

1.167

TATA

0.147

LVGI

1.315

HCC exhibits several concerning financial indicators, particularly in earnings quality and manipulation risk, as indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -1.6922, which is close to the threshold for potential earnings manipulation. The company's low earnings quality score of 32.7/100, particularly poor cash conversion metrics, raises further concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.6922, indicating potential earnings manipulation risk as it is close to the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 32.7/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggesting severe issues in converting earnings into actual cash.
Receivables quality score of 29.0/100, indicating potential issues with revenue recognition and collection.

Positive Signals

Gross margin score of 100.0/100, indicating strong profitability on sales.
Ownership by institutional investors, with the largest shareholder holding 51.5%, which may provide some stability and oversight.

Ownership Risk

The significant ownership by institutional investors, particularly Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Intimex at 51.5%, suggests a level of stability; however, the concentration of ownership may also lead to governance risks if interests diverge.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HCC's financial disclosures and consider a cautious approach, given the elevated risk of earnings manipulation and poor cash flow metrics. It may be prudent to wait for improvements in earnings quality before making substantial investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

5.68

Safe Zone

Sharpe

1.31

Excellent

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+108.8%

Volatility

62.7%

Max Drawdown

-22.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.75P/E

P/B1.71

P/S0.42

ROE32.4%

ROA19.3%

EPS4663.59

BVPS15656.62

Gross Margin12.0%

Net Margin7.2%

D/E0.66

Current Ratio1.89

Rev Growth40.2%

Profit Growth142.1%

EV/EBITDA3.48

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

6.5M

Charter Capital

65.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HCC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Intimex

Inst

51.5%

3.4 trieu

Reverie LTD

Inst

8.3%

538.552

asean deep value fund

Inst

4.8%

175.700

Peter Eric Dennis

Indiv

4.8%

310.252

america limited liability company

Inst

4.6%

302.000

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Anh

Indiv

1.4%

90.209

Trần Thị Minh

Indiv

1.4%

50.000

Ngô Văn Long

Indiv

0.8%

49.088

Hồ Minh Đức

Indiv

0.5%

18.943

Nguyễn Đình

Indiv

0.5%

18.060

Phạm Văn Dữ

Indiv

0.5%

29.716

Phan Tấn Xuất

Indiv

0.4%

28.069

Lê Chấn

Indiv

0.4%

14.175

Nguyễn Hữu Kỳ

Indiv

0.4%

13.367

Phạm Bá Cường

Indiv

0.1%

4.475

Board & Management

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Anh1.4%

Kế toán trưởng

Ngô Văn Long0.8%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Văn Dữ0.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Hà Nam

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Xuân Nam

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Lê Thái Nguyên

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phan Hồng Huê

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Vũ Trường Giang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

SGN25.0%WCS23.6%DNM22.7%IDV18.0%SZL16.1%BAX16.1%TIP15.3%STL14.3%MTH13.6%ILB12.8%NCT11.0%PPS9.0%

Computed 12/04/2026