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Cyclicals sector

SMC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Thương mại SMC
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT
11.200
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
9.662
Current
11.200
Gap
-13.7%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Equity Value Bvps Floor
BVPS
13.804
x
Discount
70%
=
Floor Value
13.804

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SMC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

35
Weak
Accrual Quality
83
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
99

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.84
Moderate
DSRI
1.193
GMI
1.088
AQI
1.986
SGI
0.785
DEPI
0.901
SGAI
1.020
TATA
0.043
LVGI
0.935

SMC exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by its Beneish M-Score of -1.8404, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The company's earnings quality score of 34.7/100, particularly low cash conversion and receivables metrics, further raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.8404 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 34.7/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests significant issues in converting earnings to cash.
Positive Signals
  • Revenue quality score of 99.1/100 indicates strong revenue recognition practices.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration of shares among a few individuals and institutions, with Hanwa Company Limited holding 19.6%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence on SMC's financial practices and consider monitoring cash flow trends closely before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.52
Distress Zone
Sharpe
1.33
Excellent
Composite
51
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+124.0%
Volatility
42.9%
Max Drawdown
-37.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
4.93P/E
P/B0.81
P/S0.12
ROE17.9%
ROA3.6%
EPS2272.68
BVPS13803.51
Gross Margin0.1%
Net Margin2.4%
D/E3.48
Current Ratio0.82
Rev Growth-21.5%
Profit Growth472.7%
EV/EBITDA25.86
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
73.7M
Charter Capital
736.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Kim loại
Sub-industry
Thép và sản phẩm thép
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SMC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Hanwa Company Limited
Inst
19.6%
14.4 trieu
Nguyễn Ngọc Anh
Indiv
14.0%
7.7 trieu
Nguyễn Cẩm Hà
Indiv
5.0%
3.0 trieu
KIM Vietnam Growth Equity Fund
Inst
4.9%
3.0 trieu
Nguyễn Ngọc Ý Nhi
Indiv
3.2%
2.4 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Tánh
Indiv
2.4%
696.960
Nguyễn Quốc Thắng
Indiv
2.3%
1.7 trieu
Nguyễn Nghĩa Dũng
Indiv
2.3%
1.7 trieu
Công ty TNHH Quản lý Quỹ Bảo Việt
Inst
2.2%
660.000
Công ty Tài Chính TNHH MTV Bưu Điện
Inst
1.6%
465.223
Phạm Hoàng Anh
Indiv
1.4%
1.0 trieu
Nguyễn Anh Dũng
Indiv
1.4%
997.746
Kitmc Vietnam Growth Fund
Inst
1.2%
715.000
nguyen-ngoc-dang-khoa
Indiv
1.0%
751.987
Võ Hoàng Vũ
Indiv
0.9%
519.649
Nguyễn Thụy Như Quỳnh
Indiv
0.7%
519.013
Nguyễn Văn Tiến
Indiv
0.5%
334.672
Nguyễn Ngọc Lan
Indiv
0.4%
107.167
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hương
Indiv
0.3%
225.649
Đặng Huy Hiệp
Indiv
0.3%
168.740
Nguyễn Hữu Kinh Luân
Indiv
0.2%
143.076
Nguyễn Đức Dũng
Indiv
0.1%
113.256
Nguyễn Bình Trọng
Indiv
0.1%
108.000
Đào Việt Thắng
Indiv
0.1%
40.466
Board & Management
Nguyễn Ngọc Ý Nhi3.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Tiến0.5%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đặng Huy Hiệp0.3%
Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hữu Kinh Luân0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Bình Trọng0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Văn Lâm
Kế toán trưởng
Võ Thị Tố Ngân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Cẩm Tú
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Thị Thu Trang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Anh Nguyên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Kishimoto Hideki
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Loan
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trương Văn Minh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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