NVL

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Đầu tư Địa ốc No Va

Bất động sảnCT

14.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

7.422

Current

14.300

Gap

-48.1%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

19.89%

Kd(1-t)

3.40%

D/(D+E)

80.11%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

14.844

60%DCF Value

-26.815

Blended Intrinsic

7.422

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NVL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.79

Low Risk

DSRI

1.125

GMI

0.014

AQI

1.381

SGI

0.768

DEPI

1.255

SGAI

1.243

TATA

0.031

LVGI

0.954

NVL exhibits several concerning indicators of potential financial manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.791, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The company's earnings quality score of 21.9/100, combined with poor cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises significant red flags regarding the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.791 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 21.9/100 suggests severe issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition.
Cash conversion metrics (eq_cash_conv, eq_receivables, eq_margin, eq_revenue) all at 0.0/100 indicate a lack of quality in earnings.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 1.1246 indicates a slight increase in receivables relative to sales, which may suggest growth, albeit with caution.
SGI of 0.7677 indicates a decrease in sales growth, which could imply a conservative approach to revenue recognition.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Bùi Thành Nhơn holding 49.6%, which raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest and lack of independent oversight. Such concentration can lead to governance risks, especially in a market with less stringent regulatory frameworks.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering NVL, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and governance practices. Monitoring future earnings reports for improvements in cash conversion metrics will be critical.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.78

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.57

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+41.7%

Volatility

48.9%

Max Drawdown

-39.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

16.61P/E

P/B0.62

P/S4.05

ROE4.1%

ROA0.7%

EPS761.76

BVPS20293.59

Gross Margin64.4%

Net Margin24.4%

D/E3.24

Current Ratio2.16

Rev Growth-23.3%

Profit Growth126.3%

EV/EBITDA25.02

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2232.0M

Charter Capital

22320.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NVL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Bùi Thành Nhơn

Indiv

49.6%

Công ty Cổ Phần Novagroup

Inst

22.0%

491.8 trieu

Công ty CP Diamond Properties

Inst

7.7%

171.4 trieu

Bùi Thành Nhơn

Indiv

4.7%

96.8 trieu

Nguyễn Như Pho

Indiv

4.2%

24.9 trieu

Thái Ngọc Quý

Indiv

3.7%

33.9 trieu

Bùi Cao Nhật Quân

Indiv

3.7%

75.3 trieu

Lê Thành Liêm

Indiv

2.5%

22.4 trieu

Cao Thị Ngọc Sương

Indiv

2.4%

48.2 trieu

Bùi Xuân Huy

Indiv

1.7%

33.8 trieu

Nguyễn Hiếu Liêm

Indiv

1.2%

22.5 trieu

VanEck Vietnam ETF

Inst

1.0%

6.4 trieu

Trần Thị Thanh Vân

Indiv

0.9%

17.9 trieu

Dương Văn Bắc

Indiv

0.7%

14.7 trieu

Cao Trần Duy Nam

Indiv

0.5%

10.5 trieu

Bùi Cao Ngọc Quỳnh

Indiv

0.4%

7.7 trieu

Hoàng Thu Châu

Indiv

0.2%

4.1 trieu

Công Đoàn Cơ Sở Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Đầu Tư Địa Ốc No Va

Inst

0.2%

3.9 trieu

Bùi Đạt Chương

Indiv

0.1%

3.0 trieu

Board & Management

Bùi Thành Nhơn4.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Xuân Huy1.7%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Thu Châu0.3%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Hoàng Thu Châu0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Xuân Dung

Giám đốc Tài chính

Huỳnh Minh Lâm

Kế toán trưởng

Phạm Tiến Vân

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Lê Quốc Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Mỹ Hạnh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Top connections

QNT77.3%HCD20.5%GND13.4%HPP8.7%ITA4.9%PVT4.5%PVS4.4%SJS4.4%IJC4.1%PPC4.0%SHB3.7%KBC3.6%

Computed 12/04/2026