Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 28.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 35.068
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.6316th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 12.0%84th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M‑Score is -1.0892 (87th percentile against Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +2.06, indicating its accounting profile is more aggressive than most domestic peers and has moved materially year‑on‑year. Other signals: Altman Z‑Score is 1.32 (distress zone), Earnings‑Quality is weak at 40.1/100 with especially poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and margin quality (0.0/100), while receivables quality scores 100/100; Piotroski F‑Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.0892 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns); Vietnam peer percentile = 87th, showing this score is higher (more aggressive) than 87% of Vietnamese peers, and YoY change +2.06 indicating a substantial upward move in the metric.
- Accruals / cash conversion: Earnings‑Quality overall 40.1/100 and Cash conversion 0.0/100 (measures operating cash flow relative to reported profit over three years), with the company’s three‑year cash conversion at -0.63 (16th percentile versus VN non‑financials), showing profits have not been turning into cash.
- Altman Z‑Score = 1.32 (measures bankruptcy distance using balance‑sheet and income metrics) which places the company in the model’s distress zone.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.9356 (measures increases in non‑current or unusual assets that can inflate profits), and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 12.0% of total assets (84th percentile), implying a material share of assets in prepayments/loans/long‑term receivables.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1136 (measures extent of accruals in profits); a positive number of this size contributes to weaker accruals quality.
- SGI = 1.5517 (Sales Growth Index = 55% growth) and DEPI = 1.0950 (Depreciation Index >1 indicating depreciation policy change or asset mix shifts) — both are components that can complicate income comparability and feed into the elevated M‑Score.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures cleanliness and proportion of receivables that look like ordinary trade receivables) — supportive evidence that trade receivables themselves are not unusually aggressive.
- DSRI = 0.6287 (Days Sales Receivables Index <1, measuring no abnormal rise in days’ sales outstanding), which aligns with the strong receivables quality score.
- SGAI = 0.6916 (Selling, General & Admin Index <1, indicates SGA expense growth did not outpace sales), and LVGI = 1.0673 (Leverage Index ~1.07, not an extreme leverage jump) — mixed but some items are not showing extreme management distortions.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 5/9 (measures short‑term operating and financial strength; a middle score indicating neither clear deterioration nor strong improvement).
Ownership is concentrated: the largest shareholder, Phạm Minh Đức, holds 23.6%, and the next four individuals hold 6.7%, 4.0%, 4.0% and 1.6% respectively. Director‑deal registrations in the past year show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (300,000 shares), net registered volume +2.75% of shares outstanding — registrations reflect intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) disclosing "prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables" to the line items summing to 12.0% of total assets and reconcile movements year‑on‑year.
- Verify the operating cash flow and parent‑company net profit lines over the last three annual statements to reproduce the three‑year cash conversion ratio of -0.63 and reconcile major items driving the gap (non‑cash accruals, related‑party flows).
- Inspect the fixed‑asset and depreciation note to explain DEPI = 1.0950 (changes in depreciation policy, useful lives, or asset reclassifications) and any large additions/disposals that affect AQI and TATA.
- Review the disclosures of related‑party transactions and the majority‑owner schedules to trace any material flows to/from the largest shareholders (Phạm Minh Đức and other listed individuals).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.47
- P/S
- 0.27
- ROE
- 23.3%
- ROA
- 6.8%
- EPS
- 12.475
- BVPS
- 59.023
- Gross Margin
- 20.2%
- Net Margin
- 12.3%
- D/E
- 1.05
- Current Ratio
- 1.29
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.19
- Div Yield
- 3.6%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 10.9M
- Charter Capital
- 109B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT