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Construction sector

HMS

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Bảo tàng Hồ Chí Minh
Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT
38.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
155.603
Current
38.600
Gap
+303.1%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTXây dựng và Vật liệuConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
37.12%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.35%
x
D/(D+E)
62.88%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
7.535
50%DCF Value
303.671
Blended Intrinsic
155.603
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HMS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

59
Fair
Accrual Quality
56
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.15
Low Risk
DSRI
0.698
GMI
0.477
AQI
1.234
SGI
1.407
DEPI
1.171
SGAI
1.148
TATA
-0.116
LVGI
1.064

HMS exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.1459, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 58.9 suggests potential concerns in revenue recognition and margin quality, which may warrant further scrutiny.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 for eq_margin and eq_revenue, indicating significant issues with profitability and revenue recognition.
  • The SGI of 1.4070 suggests aggressive growth strategies that may not be sustainable.
Positive Signals
  • A Beneish M-Score of -3.1459 indicates a low risk of earnings manipulation.
  • The cash conversion score of 100.0/100 reflects strong cash flow management.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, with the largest shareholder holding 23.6%. This concentration can lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HMS's revenue recognition practices and margin improvements. Consider a cautious approach, focusing on cash flow metrics and governance structures before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
1.34
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.31
Negative
Composite
55
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-18.1%
Volatility
49.6%
Max Drawdown
-34.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
12.04P/E
P/B0.73
P/S0.52
ROE6.7%
ROA2.2%
EPS3116.88
BVPS47864.71
Gross Margin15.8%
Net Margin4.7%
D/E2.02
Current Ratio1.43
Rev Growth40.7%
Profit Growth662.4%
EV/EBITDA7.09
Div Yield2.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
10.9M
Charter Capital
109.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HMS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Phạm Minh Đức
Indiv
23.6%
2.6 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Hiền
Indiv
6.7%
732.155
nguyen-minh-hai
Indiv
5.0%
402.150
Nguyễn Văn Hà
Indiv
4.0%
432.127
Nguyễn Thế Cảnh
Indiv
4.0%
432.127
Tôn Mạnh Dũng
Indiv
2.4%
18.900
Nguyễn Lưu Anh Sơn
Indiv
1.6%
130.320
Phạm Văn Huy
Indiv
1.6%
172.634
Đỗ Việt Thi
Indiv
1.1%
124.625
Trần Thị Hòa
Indiv
1.1%
116.442
Phạm Thanh Phúc
Indiv
0.7%
80.465
Phạm Hồng Hạnh
Indiv
0.6%
54.500
Phạm Thị Phượng
Indiv
0.6%
66.238
Ngô Kim Dung
Indiv
0.5%
54.965
Nguyễn Đặng Tuấn
Indiv
0.4%
45.284
Đoàn Văn Khang
Indiv
0.3%
37.237
Nguyễn Văn Dung
Indiv
0.2%
27.060
Phạm Thu Lan
Indiv
0.2%
20.473
Nguyễn Thị Nhật Lệ
Indiv
0.2%
18.150
Board & Management
Phạm Minh Đức23.6%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Hiền6.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thế Cảnh4.0%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Tôn Mạnh Dũng2.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Lưu Anh Sơn1.6%
Phó Giám đốc
Đỗ Việt Thi1.1%
Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Hoa1.1%
Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Kim Dung0.5%
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Phạm Thu Lan0.2%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thủy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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