PVC

Cyclicals

Tổng Công ty Hóa chất và Dịch vụ Dầu khí - Công ty Cổ phần

Dầu khí/Thiết bị, Dịch vụ và Phân phối Dầu khíCT

18.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

4.811

Current

18.400

Gap

-73.8%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Dầu khí→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Dầu khí" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→53.78B

Fair EV/EBITDA→17.5x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

53.78B

Fair EV/EBITDA

17.5x

Net Debt

552.37B

Equity Value

4.811

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PVC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.85

High Risk

DSRI

1.177

GMI

1.006

AQI

0.815

SGI

1.752

DEPI

0.950

SGAI

0.786

TATA

0.197

LVGI

1.253

PVC exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential manipulation, particularly indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -0.8458, which is above the manipulation threshold. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 31.7/100 highlights significant weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -0.8458 is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 31.7/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.
SGI of 1.7521 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables, which is a positive sign for liquidity.
Ownership by Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam at 36.0% suggests strong institutional backing, which can provide stability.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the largest shareholder holding 36.0%. This concentration can lead to governance risks, as minority shareholders may have limited influence over corporate decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should proceed with caution, closely monitoring PVC's financial disclosures and operational performance. Consider waiting for improved earnings quality metrics and a more favorable Beneish M-Score before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.63

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.78

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+56.0%

Volatility

69.1%

Max Drawdown

-34.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

40.08P/E

P/B1.14

P/S0.21

ROE2.9%

ROA1.1%

EPS334.33

BVPS11776.06

Gross Margin6.6%

Net Margin0.5%

D/E1.66

Current Ratio1.52

Rev Growth75.3%

Profit Growth722.8%

EV/EBITDA17.53

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

81.2M

Charter Capital

811.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Dầu khí

Industry (ICB L3)

Thiết bị, Dịch vụ và Phân phối Dầu khí

Sub-industry

Thiết bị và Dịch vụ Dầu khí

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PVC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam

Inst

36.0%

29.2 trieu

Nguyễn Hữu Phẩm

Indiv

14.8%

7.4 trieu

Samarang Ucits - Samarang Asian Prosperity

Inst

5.0%

2.4 trieu

Công ty Hữu hạn Công nghiệp Hồng Đạt

Inst

4.7%

2.4 trieu

Hoàng Trọng Dũng

Indiv

0.4%

189.000

Board & Management

Hoàng Trọng Dũng0.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Văn Trinh

Kế toán trưởng

Bùi Tuấn Ngọc

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Ngọc Khuê

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Ngọc Quỳnh

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Duy Tân

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Hương Giang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phan Công Thành

Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trương Đại Nghĩa

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trương Việt Phương

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Thị Hồng Hạnh

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trần Hồng Kiên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Việt Thắng

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Top connections

GAS95.8%BSR92.1%OIL80.5%POW79.9%DCM75.6%DPM59.6%PVX54.5%PVS51.4%PVT51.0%PVD50.4%PSN43.8%PVI36.0%

Computed 12/04/2026