PVC
Tổng Công ty Hóa chất và Dịch vụ Dầu khí - Công ty Cổ phần
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.251
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.7310th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.1%57th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.8378 (Vietnam peer percentile 89th) with a year-over-year increase of +1.76, signalling that its accounting metrics are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that the metrics shifted materially year-over-year. Earnings-quality components are weak overall (Earnings Quality 17.0/100) driven by near-zero cash- and revenue-quality scores; liquidity/solvency signals are mixed: Altman Z-Score 2.81 (grey zone) while Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral). Vietnamese-specific checks show poor cash conversion (-1.73, 10th percentile) but no accumulated statutory losses and the financial statements do not meet the exchange cancelation loss tests.
- Beneish M-Score -0.8378 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios); the company sits at the 89th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score rose by +1.76 year-over-year (the change indicates accounting metrics moved materially this year).
- DSRI 1.1941 (Days’ Sales Receivables Index; >1 can indicate revenue recognition or receivables growth relative to sales), coupled with Revenue Quality 0.0/100 (measures persistence and cash backing of reported revenue) — both suggest receivables/revenue deserve scrutiny.
- TATA 0.2044 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; measures accrual intensity) and Accruals quality 32.2/100 — reported profits have a substantial accrual component and low accrual quality.
- Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -1.73 (10th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; measures how profit turns into cash) and Earnings Quality 17.0/100 with Cash conversion subscore 0.0/100 — reported earnings are not converting into cash.
- SGI 1.7337 (Sales Growth Index; rapid sales growth relative to peers can be a risk factor) alongside LVGI 1.2598 (Leverage/volume growth index) — fast top-line growth may be driving some of the aggressive metrics.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.1% of total assets (57th percentile) (this captures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long-term receivables) combined with DSRI >1 suggests non-trade receivables and trade-receivables dynamics merit verification.
- Earnings-quality Revenue quality 0.0/100 and Cash conversion 0.0/100 together flag that reported profit margins and revenue lack supporting cash evidence (Margin quality 30.7/100 further weak).
- Altman Z-Score 2.81 (measures distance to bankruptcy using liquidity, profitability and leverage; this company is in the 'grey zone', not the distress zone), indicating not an immediate insolvency signal by that metric.
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9 (measures fundamental quality across profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency; 6/9 is a neutral-to-favourable score), which offsets some concern from the M-Score.
- AQI 0.7667 (Asset Quality Index; <1 suggests asset-writeoffs or conservative asset recognition relative to sales) — this component is not indicating aggressive capitalization of assets.
- DEPI 0.9765 and SGAI 0.7799 (Depreciation Index and SG&A Index; values near or below 1 suggest no obvious upward pressure from slowing depreciation or inflated SG&A capitalization).
Top shareholder is Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam (state-related institution) holding 36.0%, followed by an individual, Nguyễn Hữu Phẩm, at 14.8%; institutional foreign holder Samarang UCITS holds 5.0%. Ownership is concentrated with a dominant state-related block (36.0%), which can affect governance, related-party flows and group transactions. Director-deal registrations for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 1 sale registration (50,000 shares) and 0 purchase registrations (net registered volume -0.06% of shares outstanding); these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the three-year operating cash flows with reported net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and management discussion to reconcile the cash-conversion ratio of -1.73.
- Inspect the receivables and other receivables / long-term receivables notes for FY2025 to identify the composition of the 3.1% of total assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments, loans to related parties, other long-term receivables).
- Reconcile revenue recognition policies and the revenue note (including cut-off and contracts) with the DSRI = 1.1941 and Revenue Quality = 0.0/100 to see whether growth (SGI 1.7337) is linked to terms, timing or non-recurring items.
- Review related-party transactions (notes and schedules) and the group structure disclosures to check for intra-group loans, large prepayments or non-arm’s-length service/supply arrangements that could explain accruals (TATA 0.2044) and receivable patterns.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.95
- P/S
- 0.18
- ROE
- 3.4%
- ROA
- 1.3%
- EPS
- 400
- BVPS
- 11.849
- Gross Margin
- 6.7%
- Net Margin
- 0.9%
- D/E
- 0.69
- Current Ratio
- 1.53
- Rev Growth
- +75.3%
- Profit Growth
- +722.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 13.60
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 81.2M
- Charter Capital
- 812B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Dầu khí
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Thiết bị, Dịch vụ và Phân phối Dầu khí
- Sub-industry
- Thiết bị và Dịch vụ Dầu khí
- Company Type
- CT