HNP
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HNP
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
HNP exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -1.7393, indicating it is close to the threshold for potential earnings manipulation. While the earnings quality score is moderate at 46.7, the zero cash conversion and revenue metrics raise concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.
- Beneish M-Score of -1.7393 is near the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting potential earnings manipulation.
- Earnings quality cash conversion score of 0.0/100 indicates a complete lack of cash generation from reported earnings.
- DSRI of 1.0137 suggests inventory levels are in line with sales, indicating no immediate red flag in inventory management.
- The GMI of 0.8657 indicates a decline in gross margin, which could reflect cost management efforts rather than manipulation.
Công ty Cổ phần Hanel holds a significant 56.3% stake, indicating potential concentration risk and limited minority shareholder influence. This could lead to governance issues if decisions favor the majority shareholder.
Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and consider a deeper analysis of revenue recognition practices. It may be prudent to approach HNP with caution, given the potential for earnings manipulation.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
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