SVD

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư & Thương mại Vũ Đăng

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT

3.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

18.883

Current

3.800

Gap

+396.9%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

73.38%

Kd(1-t)

7.85%

D/(D+E)

26.62%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→32.36B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

32.36B

Growth Rate

4.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

18.883

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SVD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.49

Moderate

DSRI

0.809

GMI

2.152

AQI

1.038

SGI

0.926

DEPI

0.932

SGAI

1.146

TATA

-0.091

LVGI

0.799

SVD exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly a Beneish M-Score of -2.4903, indicating a lower likelihood of manipulation but still raising concerns due to the high GMI of 2.1522. The earnings quality score of 54.5/100 suggests moderate quality, but significant weaknesses in revenue and margin metrics warrant caution.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.4903 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk, though below the manipulation threshold.
GMI of 2.1522 suggests increasing gross margin pressure, which could indicate potential revenue recognition issues.
Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 for both eq_margin and eq_revenue, highlighting severe concerns about revenue sustainability.

Positive Signals

Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
DSRI of 0.8091 suggests effective inventory management, potentially mitigating risks of overproduction.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are individuals with significant stakes, which may lead to concentrated decision-making and potential governance risks. However, the absence of institutional investors may also indicate a lack of external oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SVD's earnings quality and revenue recognition practices, considering the elevated risk signals. A cautious approach is recommended, potentially waiting for improved transparency and governance before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.16

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.33

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+26.2%

Volatility

48.8%

Max Drawdown

-43.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

49.30P/E

P/B0.40

P/S0.33

ROE0.8%

ROA0.6%

EPS77.07

BVPS9485.53

Gross Margin3.8%

Net Margin0.7%

D/E0.27

Current Ratio1.77

Rev Growth-7.4%

Profit Growth-84.3%

EV/EBITDA6.06

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

27.6M

Charter Capital

276.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng cá nhân

Sub-industry

Hàng May mặc

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SVD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Vũ Tuấn Phương

Indiv

20.0%

5.5 trieu

Huỳnh Văn Quảng

Indiv

15.1%

4.2 trieu

Trần Thị Thu

Indiv

5.0%

1.4 trieu

Huỳnh Quang Trường

Indiv

5.0%

1.4 trieu

Vũ Phương Linh

Indiv

3.6%

1.0 trieu

Trần Kim Phượng

Indiv

3.0%

391.700

nguyen-anh-tuan

Indiv

0.9%

251.227

Mai Anh Tuấn

Indiv

0.2%

64.200

Hoàng Thu Hương

Indiv

0.2%

64.200

Board & Management

Vũ Tuấn Phương20.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Mai Anh Tuấn0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Thu Hương0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đoàn Thị Vui

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Mai

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Đình Tiện

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thị Phượng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Hoàng Nam

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Khổng Thị Huyền

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Trần Thị Khánh Linh

Kế toán trưởng

Vũ Anh Lưỡng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

PGN24.8%TTZ2 links HCI19.7%FIR15.2%TV215.1%XLV11.0%HNM9.2%KDM6.3%PV25.7%DTA5.2%TNI5.1%CET5.0%

Computed 12/04/2026