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Utilities sector

PMG

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Sản xuất Petro Miền Trung
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
7.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
4.204
Current
7.000
Gap
-39.9%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:EPS default
DPS223
Payout ratio50.0%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
223
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
4.204
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PMG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

20
Poor
Accrual Quality
90
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
9
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.47
Moderate
DSRI
0.946
GMI
0.909
AQI
1.232
SGI
0.868
DEPI
0.920
SGAI
1.139
TATA
0.026
LVGI
0.876

PMG exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.4742, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 19.7/100 further indicates severe issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.4742 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 19.7/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in converting earnings to cash.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.9459 indicates a lower risk of inventory manipulation compared to sales.
  • SGI of 0.8681 suggests that the company's growth rate is manageable relative to its sales.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with Nguyễn Tiến Lạng holding 35% and Nguyễn Thị Bích Thủy holding 20%, raises concerns about potential governance issues and lack of accountability, which could exacerbate financial manipulation risks.

Recommendation

Investors should proceed with caution, closely monitoring PMG's financial disclosures and cash flow statements. It may be prudent to consider divesting or reducing exposure until clearer signs of financial stability and transparency emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.23
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.18
Negative
Composite
36
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+35.3%
Volatility
67.8%
Max Drawdown
-49.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
18.17P/E
P/B0.86
P/S0.21
ROE4.9%
ROA1.3%
EPS445.89
BVPS9388.39
Gross Margin16.1%
Net Margin1.2%
D/E1.20
Current Ratio0.73
Rev Growth-13.3%
Profit Growth-16.6%
EV/EBITDA9.51
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
46.3M
Charter Capital
463.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PMG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Tiến Lạng
Indiv
35.0%
16.2 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Bích Thủy
Indiv
20.0%
9.3 trieu
Lemon Gas Company Limited
Inst
20.0%
9.3 trieu
Nguyễn Khánh Minh
Indiv
3.0%
1.4 trieu
Nguyễn Tiến Đạt
Indiv
3.0%
1.4 trieu
Hàn Kiều Minh Phương
Indiv
0.6%
268.065
Quách Mẫn Trung
Indiv
0.5%
150.000
Võ Thị Ánh Nguyệt
Indiv
0.3%
140.415
Board & Management
Nguyễn Tiến Lãng35.0%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Bích Thùy20.0%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Võ Thị Ánh Nguyệt0.3%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kinh doanh
Nguyễn Thị Linh Thường
Kế toán trưởng
Trần Thị Quyên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Hồng Trang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Bích
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Sato Ryoichi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Tấn Cẩn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Computed 12/04/2026
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