QCG

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Quốc Cường Gia Lai

Bất động sảnCT

13.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

9.113

Current

13.500

Gap

-32.5%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

51.51%

Kd(1-t)

6.09%

D/(D+E)

48.49%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

19.860

60%DCF Value

1.949

Blended Intrinsic

9.113

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — QCG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.06

Moderate

DSRI

1.976

GMI

0.659

AQI

0.977

SGI

0.649

DEPI

1.166

SGAI

1.477

TATA

0.015

LVGI

0.943

QCG exhibits several concerning indicators, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.0593, which suggests potential earnings manipulation. The earnings quality score of 28.4/100, driven by extremely low metrics in cash conversion and revenue quality, raises further alarms about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.0593 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 28.4/100, with eq_cash_conv at 19.5/100 and eq_revenue at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in cash flow and revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 1.9761 indicates that inventory is growing at a reasonable rate compared to revenue, which can be a positive sign in terms of operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly individuals, with Nguyễn Thị Như Loan holding a significant 37.0%. This concentrated ownership can lead to governance risks, particularly if decisions are made that favor personal interests over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on QCG, particularly focusing on cash flow and revenue recognition practices. It may be prudent to monitor upcoming financial reports closely for signs of improvement or further deterioration.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.67

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.28

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+15.9%

Volatility

47.6%

Max Drawdown

-35.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

23.89P/E

P/B0.95

P/S8.75

ROE4.0%

ROA2.0%

EPS630.03

BVPS15887.87

Gross Margin39.0%

Net Margin36.6%

D/E0.84

Current Ratio0.57

Rev Growth-35.1%

Profit Growth108.4%

EV/EBITDA22.16

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

275.1M

Charter Capital

2751.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for QCG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Thị Như Loan

Indiv

37.0%

101.9 trieu

Nguyễn Ngọc Huyền My

Indiv

14.3%

39.4 trieu

Lầu Đức Duy

Indiv

3.8%

10.5 trieu

nguyen-thi-anh-nguyet

Indiv

3.5%

9.7 trieu

Lê Thị Ngọc Nữ

Indiv

3.3%

9.0 trieu

Hồ Thảo Nguyên

Indiv

2.3%

6.4 trieu

Lê Quốc Hưng

Indiv

1.6%

4.5 trieu

Lưu Đình Phát

Indiv

0.7%

2.0 trieu

Hồ Viết Mạnh

Indiv

0.6%

1.5 trieu

Lại Thị Hoàng Yến

Indiv

0.5%

1.5 trieu

Hồ Diệu Thảo

Indiv

0.5%

1.3 trieu

Lại Thế Hà

Indiv

0.2%

597.500

Nguyễn Quốc Cường

Indiv

0.2%

537.500

Board & Management

Nguyễn Thị Như Loan37.0%

Tổng Giám đốc

Lại Thế Hà0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Thùy Trang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Trường

Kế toán trưởng

Trịnh Thị Mỹ Hạnh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Thị Thu Thủy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

PMG20.0%TTZ5.1%PIV5.0%PGN5.0%AGG4.9%CTA4.5%CVT4.5%IDP4.4%THG4.0%DSC3.5%TNT2.2%TCM1.9%

Computed 12/04/2026