HTI

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển Hạ tầng IDICO

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

24.550

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

82.734

Current

24.550

Gap

+237.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

34.64%

Kd(1-t)

6.58%

D/(D+E)

65.36%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

28.922

50%DCF Value

136.546

Blended Intrinsic

82.734

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HTI

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.18

Moderate

DSRI

1.574

GMI

1.280

AQI

1.001

SGI

1.112

DEPI

0.888

SGAI

0.827

TATA

-0.104

LVGI

1.018

HTI exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.1778, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Despite a reasonable earnings quality score of 61.2, the low receivables and revenue metrics raise significant red flags regarding revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.1778 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality metrics show eq_receivables at 11.2/100 and eq_revenue at 27.9/100, suggesting poor revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 61.2/100 indicates overall decent earnings quality, with strong cash conversion at 100.0/100.
Ownership concentration with Tổng Công ty IDICO holding 57.5% may provide stability and alignment of interests.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by institutional investors, particularly Tổng Công ty IDICO at 57.5%, may mitigate some risks associated with management decisions, but it also raises concerns about minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor HTI's financial disclosures and earnings reports, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and the implications of the low receivables and revenue metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.42

Distress Zone

Sharpe

1.58

Excellent

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+49.6%

Volatility

24.7%

Max Drawdown

-8.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

3.81P/E

P/B1.03

P/S1.30

ROE30.0%

ROA10.8%

EPS6790.92

BVPS25107.37

Gross Margin42.6%

Net Margin34.1%

D/E1.61

Current Ratio3.27

Rev Growth1.3%

Profit Growth165.6%

EV/EBITDA4.13

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

24.9M

Charter Capital

249.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HTI — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty IDICO

Inst

57.5%

14.3 trieu

Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited

Inst

5.4%

1.3 trieu

america limited liability company

Inst

4.9%

1.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng Dầu khí IDICO

Inst

4.3%

1.1 trieu

Lã Thị Nhã Phương

Indiv

2.3%

580.546

nguyen-cong-minh

Indiv

0.5%

116.990

Nguyễn Hồng Ninh

Indiv

0.2%

60.000

Trần Thị Minh Tuyết

Indiv

0.2%

54.000

Lê Quốc Đạt

Indiv

0.2%

45.200

Nguyễn Văn Thúy

Indiv

0.2%

40.050

Vũ Nhật Bình

Indiv

0.1%

33.000

Nguyễn Tiên Lượng

Indiv

0.1%

29.950

Phạm Thị Kiều Trang

Indiv

0.1%

30.000

Nguyễn Vũ Minh Long

Indiv

0.1%

29.030

Nguyễn Thị Kim Dung

Indiv

0.1%

26.550

Nguyễn Đăng Nghị

Indiv

0.1%

25.610

Board & Management

Lê Quốc Đạt0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Thọ

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Minh Phương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hồng Hải

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Khương Quốc Bình

Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Trường Vũ

Kế toán trưởng

Đoàn Văn Hùng

Phó Giám đốc

Bùi Văn Dân

Phó Giám đốc

Trần Quốc Toản

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Thị Hà

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Anh Dũng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

UIC64.5%ISH57.5%ICN57.5%LAI57.5%INC57.5%LMI57.5%PXL57.5%NAC57.5%NT257.5%CTI57.5%SGN25.0%WCS23.6%

Computed 12/04/2026