ICN

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng Dầu khí IDICO

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

32.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

55.101

Current

32.000

Gap

+72.2%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

30.52%

Kd(1-t)

6.39%

D/(D+E)

69.48%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

46.100

50%DCF Value

64.102

Blended Intrinsic

55.101

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ICN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.41

Moderate

DSRI

1.203

GMI

1.137

AQI

1.009

SGI

0.724

DEPI

0.767

SGAI

1.475

TATA

0.024

LVGI

0.852

ICN demonstrates a concerning Beneish M-Score of -2.4135, indicating potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a high SGAI of 1.4749. Although the earnings quality score is moderate at 52.0, the extremely low scores in receivables and revenue raise significant red flags.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.4135 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
SGAI at 1.4749 suggests excessive selling, which could indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 for eq_receivables and eq_revenue, indicating potential issues with revenue recognition and cash flow.

Positive Signals

High eq_accrual score of 90.5/100 suggests strong accruals management.
Ownership by major institutional shareholders, including Tổng Công ty IDICO at 51.0%, may provide stability and oversight.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with 73.8% held by the top two institutional shareholders, may lead to governance risks and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution due to the elevated risk of earnings manipulation and consider closely monitoring future earnings reports and cash flow statements.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.66

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.68

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-10.8%

Volatility

20.0%

Max Drawdown

-23.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.91P/E

P/B2.13

P/S2.47

ROE34.6%

ROA12.3%

EPS5277.19

BVPS17124.99

Gross Margin45.6%

Net Margin35.8%

D/E1.45

Current Ratio6.25

Rev Growth-27.6%

Profit Growth-33.4%

EV/EBITDA5.30

Div Yield4.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

30.6M

Charter Capital

306.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ICN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty IDICO

Inst

51.0%

10.4 trieu

Công ty CP Tập Đoàn Hayat Việt Nam

Inst

22.8%

4.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Phát Triển Đầu Tư Xây Dựng Việt Nam

Inst

4.9%

1.0 trieu

Vũ Anh Tuấn

Indiv

2.1%

656.000

Công ty Cổ Phần Kiểm Định Xây Dựng An Hòa

Inst

1.1%

344.405

ĐOÀN ĐẮC HIẾU

Indiv

1.0%

120.000

nguyen-thi-hong-hanh

Indiv

0.4%

137.400

nguyen-thi-hai-yen

Indiv

0.4%

125.195

Trần Thị Dịu

Indiv

0.3%

66.600

Lê Thanh Tùng

Indiv

0.3%

87.240

Trần Thanh Kiều

Indiv

0.1%

35.000

Board & Management

Vũ Anh Tuấn2.1%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

ĐOÀN ĐẮC HIẾU1.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Hạnh0.4%

Kế toán trưởng

Lê Thanh Tùng0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Trần Thanh Kiều0.1%

Phó Giám đốc

Phạm Ngọc Dũng

Phó Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Đức Tiến

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Tuấn Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Quang Duy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Chính Trung

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tuyển Chiêu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

UIC64.5%HTI57.5%ISH51.8%LAI51.0%INC51.0%LMI51.0%PXL51.0%NAC51.0%NT251.0%CTI51.0%LCD23.4%PHH12.4%

Computed 12/04/2026