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Consumer sector

ICF

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư - Thương mại - Thuỷ sản
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
3.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
3.236
Current
3.000
Gap
+7.8%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Intrinsic Value
BVPS
6.471
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value
6.471

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ICF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

63
Fair
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
59

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.67
Elevated
DSRI
1.906
GMI
1.018
AQI
1.034
SGI
0.928
DEPI
1.252
SGAI
0.969
TATA
-0.005
LVGI
0.971

The Beneish M-Score of -1.6671 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, the high DSRI of 1.9056 and poor receivables and margin scores in the earnings quality assessment raise concerns about revenue recognition and operational efficiency.

Red Flags
  • DSRI of 1.9056 suggests significant increases in receivables relative to sales, indicating potential revenue recognition issues.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 59.7/100 is moderate, with particularly low scores in receivables (0.0/100) and margin (0.0/100), signaling concerns about revenue quality and profitability.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.6671 is above the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • High accrual score of 98.0/100 and cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicate strong cash flow management and effective accrual accounting.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, with the top five shareholders holding a combined 53.2%. This concentration may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and operational efficiency metrics. Conduct further due diligence on management's track record and consider diversifying holdings to mitigate ownership concentration risks.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
0.44
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.14
Negative
Composite
46
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-12.1%
Volatility
78.3%
Max Drawdown
-41.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-15.43P/E
P/B0.45
P/S0.86
ROE-2.9%
ROA-1.3%
EPS-188.03
BVPS6471.27
Gross Margin27.0%
Net Margin-5.6%
D/E1.17
Current Ratio3.29
Rev Growth-5.4%
Profit Growth-964.2%
EV/EBITDA652.22
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
12.8M
Charter Capital
128.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ICF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Thị Kim Xuân
Indiv
18.3%
2.3 trieu
Huỳnh Thị Minh Tú
Indiv
16.0%
2.0 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Kim Thủy
Indiv
7.6%
971.000
Nguyễn Thị Kim Thu
Indiv
7.6%
970.000
Trần Hữu Duyên
Indiv
4.7%
600.570
Nguyễn Phát Quang
Indiv
4.2%
540.000
Công ty TNHH MTV Chứng Khoán Ngân hàng Số Vikki
Inst
3.6%
459.350
Trịnh Bá Hoàng
Indiv
2.3%
296.300
Erik J.F.Smeys
Indiv
1.0%
123.800
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Thảo
Indiv
0.2%
20.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thị Kim Xuân18.3%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Kim Thu7.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Giám đốc Tài chính
Nguyễn Phát Quang4.2%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trịnh Bá Hoàng2.3%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Thảo0.2%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Việt Hùng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Triều
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Thị Bích Phượng
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thế Phong
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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