CTX

Construction

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng và Thương mại Việt Nam

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

4.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.467

Current

4.800

Gap

+34.7%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

51.74%

Kd(1-t)

6.15%

D/(D+E)

48.26%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

7.147

50%DCF Value

5.786

Blended Intrinsic

6.467

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CTX

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

31.91

High Risk

DSRI

0.027

GMI

6.186

AQI

0.616

SGI

37.438

DEPI

1.075

SGAI

0.021

TATA

0.011

LVGI

1.089

The forensic assessment of CTX reveals significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 31.9113, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the company's earnings quality metrics show concerning weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and profit margins.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 31.9113 indicates likely earnings manipulation.
SGI of 37.4384 suggests unsustainable sales growth that may not be supported by actual demand.
EQ Margin score of 11.0/100 indicates extremely poor profitability relative to revenues.

Positive Signals

High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of accounts receivable.
Accrual quality score of 95.5/100 suggests that the company is effectively converting earnings into cash.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few institutional investors, which could lead to governance risks if these entities prioritize short-term gains over long-term stability. The top five shareholders control 75.1% of the company.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider avoiding CTX due to high risk of earnings manipulation. A thorough review of financial statements and management practices is recommended before making any investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.47

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.08

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+21.1%

Volatility

63.4%

Max Drawdown

-70.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

1.89P/E

P/B0.31

P/S0.06

ROE17.6%

ROA8.9%

EPS2493.51

BVPS15375.59

Gross Margin4.9%

Net Margin3.3%

D/E1.04

Current Ratio1.39

Rev Growth3643.8%

Profit Growth1634.3%

EV/EBITDA1.24

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

100.4M

Charter Capital

1004.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CTX — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công Ty Cổ Phần Thăng Long Fundings

Inst

15.1%

15.1 trieu

Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Hòa Bình Fundings

Inst

15.0%

11.8 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu tư AMAI

Inst

14.9%

11.8 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư FTM

Inst

14.5%

11.5 trieu

Lê Quang Bình

Indiv

13.6%

10.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng PENS

Inst

10.2%

10.3 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Kim Xuân

Indiv

9.5%

7.5 trieu

Ngân hàng TM TNHH MTV Việt Nam Hiện đại

Inst

4.7%

3.7 trieu

Đồng Thị Lan

Indiv

3.0%

800.000

Công ty TNHH Đầu tư Phát triển Công nghiệp I.L.G

Inst

0.4%

96.250

Đỗ Mạnh Vũ

Indiv

0.3%

67.200

Board & Management

Ngô Thị Thu Lý

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

ĐỖ TƯỜNG HẢI

Phó Giám đốc

Lý Văn Khả

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Chu Thị Hồng Hạnh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Khanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hưng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lý Quốc Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Quốc Việt

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Toàn Thắng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Anh Hải

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trần Anh Tú

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phan Minh Tuấn

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

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Computed 12/04/2026