CTX
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng và Thương mại Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.086
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8439th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 6.5%73rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting signals of elevated earnings-management risk: a very high Beneish M-Score of 7.6787 (100th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +9.54, driven by large component scores such as GMI 6.1685 and SGI 10.0000. At the same time the Altman Z-Score is 3.53 (in the ‘safe’ zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 6/9; earnings-quality sub-scores are mixed — very weak on revenue and margins (Revenue quality 0.0/100; Margin quality 11.1/100) but strong on receivables (Receivables quality 100.0/100).
- Beneish M-Score 7.6787 (measures statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); company ranks at the 100th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting relative to peers) and the M-Score rose by +9.54 year-over-year (the YoY trajectory is a secondary cue because consecutive-year M-Scores correlate weakly).
- GMI (gross margin index) 6.1685 (measures deterioration in gross margins) and SGI (sales growth index) 10.0000 (measures rapid sales growth); both are large contributors to the M-Score and indicate sizable margin pressure alongside very high sales growth, which can stress revenue recognition and margin reporting.
- Revenue quality 0.0/100 (measures the likelihood that reported revenue is high quality); combined with Margin quality 11.1/100 this suggests reported top-line and profit margins may be of low quality versus peers.
- Cash-conversion component: Earnings Quality Score 44.4/100 and Cash conversion 16.1/100 (measures the extent to which reported profit converts to operating cash flow); Vietnamese three-year cash-conversion ratio is 0.84 (39th percentile), indicating profits have converted to cash less reliably than many peers.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) 0.0627 (measures the proportion of accruals in earnings) and AQI (accruals quality index) 0.6116 — while accruals-quality subscore is relatively better (Accruals quality 74.9/100), non-cash components still materially contribute to reported earnings.
- Altman Z-Score 3.53 (measures bankruptcy risk from financial statement ratios) — positioned in the 'safe' zone, indicating distance from typical bankruptcy thresholds.
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial health) — a neutral-to-favorable score suggesting some positive operating/fundamental metrics.
- Receivables quality 100.0/100 and DSRI 0.0280 (days-sales-receivables index, measures changes in receivables relative to sales) — receivables metrics indicate few immediate concerns about revenue recognized via trade receivables.
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; net parent profit shows 0 years of parent net loss up to FY2025 (these are objective balance-sheet and parent-profit facts).
Ownership is concentrated among a small group of institutional holders and one significant individual: Thăng Long Fundings 19.2%, Hòa Bình Fundings 15.0%, AMAI 14.9%, FTM 14.5%, and Lê Quang Bình 13.6%. Director-deal registrations in the last year show five sale registrations (4 traders; 1,621,621 shares) and one purchase registration (1 trader; 3,800,000 shares); net registered volume is +2.17% of shares outstanding. Note that these are exchange-registered intentions, not confirmed executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 note for 'Receivables and other long-term receivables' (or the related-party receivables schedule) with the 6.5% of total assets figure labelled 'receivables outside the trade cycle' to identify composition (prepayments, loans receivable, related-party balances).
- Reconcile the operating cash flow line on the consolidated cash-flow statement with consolidated net profit (parent) to verify the 3-year cash-conversion ratio (reported 0.84) and identify any large non-cash adjustments (see the 'adjustments for non-cash items' schedule).
- Inspect the revenue recognition policy note and the revenue breakdown (segment or product schedules) to assess drivers behind Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and SGI = 10.0000 (very high sales growth).
- Review the related-party transactions note and the register of transactions by key management/major shareholders to contextualize the director-deal registrations and any large intra-group balances reported in the balance sheet.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.31
- P/S
- 0.06
- ROE
- 17.7%
- ROA
- 8.9%
- EPS
- 1.960
- BVPS
- 12.084
- Gross Margin
- 4.9%
- Net Margin
- 3.3%
- D/E
- 0.20
- Current Ratio
- 1.39
- Rev Growth
- +3643.8%
- Profit Growth
- +1634.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 100M
- Charter Capital
- 1,004B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT