IDC

Real Estate

Tổng Công ty IDICO - CTCP

Bất động sảnCT

48.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

19.162

Current

48.500

Gap

-60.5%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

35.61%

Kd(1-t)

6.43%

D/(D+E)

64.39%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.85%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

18.005

60%DCF Value

19.933

Blended Intrinsic

19.162

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — IDC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.97

Low Risk

DSRI

0.787

GMI

1.059

AQI

1.016

SGI

0.971

DEPI

1.215

SGAI

1.026

TATA

-0.067

LVGI

1.044

The Beneish M-Score of -2.9735 indicates no immediate signs of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal a concerning score of 0.0/100 for revenue recognition, which may indicate potential issues in revenue reporting.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 0.0/100 for eq_revenue suggests significant concerns regarding revenue recognition practices.
GMI of 1.0588 indicates a slight increase in gross margin, which could be a red flag if not supported by underlying performance.

Positive Signals

High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings, suggesting operational efficiency.
Low DSRI of 0.7869 implies that the company is managing its inventory effectively, which is a positive sign in the context of Vietnamese market dynamics.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership, with the largest holding at 22.5%, which can provide stability. However, the presence of individual shareholders with relatively low stakes may indicate a lack of strong oversight.

Recommendation

Monitor revenue recognition closely and consider a deeper analysis of cash flow statements to validate operational performance. Given the moderate risk level, a cautious investment approach is advisable until further clarity on revenue practices is obtained.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.65

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.14

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-9.3%

Volatility

42.3%

Max Drawdown

-38.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

9.23P/E

P/B2.76

P/S2.08

ROE32.0%

ROA9.2%

EPS5090.38

BVPS17020.80

Gross Margin35.6%

Net Margin22.5%

D/E1.81

Current Ratio1.75

Rev Growth-2.9%

Profit Growth-3.2%

EV/EBITDA6.35

Div Yield3.2%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

379.5M

Charter Capital

3795.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for IDC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn S.S.G

Inst

22.5%

85.4 trieu

Công ty TNHH Sản Xuất Và Thương Mại Bách Việt

Inst

11.9%

45.3 trieu

Vũ Thị Thu Hằng

Indiv

6.3%

3.5 trieu

Công ty TNHH Kinh Doanh Và Cho Thuê Nhà Tân Bách Việt

Inst

2.9%

11.0 trieu

Đặng Việt Dũng

Indiv

2.5%

9.6 trieu

Hanoi Investments Holdings Limited

Inst

1.2%

4.0 trieu

Norges Bank

Inst

1.1%

3.5 trieu

amersham industries limited

Inst

1.0%

3.2 trieu

Wareham Group Limited

Inst

0.8%

2.8 trieu

Công ty TNHH Covestcons

Inst

0.6%

1.9 trieu

Fides Xin Moi B&I Private Investment Trust 4

Inst

0.4%

200.000

Fides Jump Up Private Investment Trust 3

Inst

0.4%

200.000

Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited

Inst

0.3%

956.000

Fides Xin Moi B&I Private Investment Trust 5

Inst

0.3%

150.000

Fides Xin Moi B&I Private Investment Trust 3

Inst

0.2%

104.800

Nguyễn Thị Như Mai

Indiv

0.2%

705.996

KB Vietnam Focus Balanced Fund

Inst

0.2%

600.000

Fides Xin Moi B&I Private Investment Trust 9

Inst

0.1%

60.000

Fides Xin Moi B&I Private Investment Trust 7

Inst

0.1%

60.000

Board & Management

Phan Văn Chính

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Ngọc

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Văn Minh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Hoàng Văn Hiến

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đào Hữu Thắng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Chính Trung

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Tôn Thất Anh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Phan Văn Chung

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hồng Hải

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Bá Thọ

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thanh Linh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Cao Nguyên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

PDR2 links TRT16.8%CIG11.0%KTT11.0%VNI7.0%DP26.3%DQC2 links ACB3 links CDG5.0%NKG2 links VSH4.9%TNC4.7%

Computed 12/04/2026