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Utilities sector

VSH

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Vĩnh Sơn - Sông Hinh
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
43.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
33.319
Current
43.300
Gap
-23.1%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend6.60%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.500
Payout ratio46.1%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.500
Base Growth
6.60%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
33.319
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VSH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

62
Fair
Accrual Quality
73
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
35
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.88
Low Risk
DSRI
0.948
GMI
0.898
AQI
0.435
SGI
1.262
DEPI
0.928
SGAI
1.136
TATA
-0.067
LVGI
0.865

VSH exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.8758, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and profit margins, which warrant caution.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 61.6/100 indicates potential concerns, especially with an eq_margin of only 34.6/100 and eq_revenue at 0.0/100, suggesting aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • The DSRI of 0.9481 and GMI of 0.8977 suggest that inventory and gross margin are being managed effectively, which is a positive indicator in the context of Vietnamese market practices.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with Công ty TNHH Năng Lượng Ree holding 52.6% and Tổng Công ty Phát điện 3 holding 30.6%, may lead to governance issues and potential conflicts of interest, impacting minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VSH's revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of its ownership structure on corporate governance. A cautious approach is advised until clearer signals of earnings stability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.10
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.86
Negative
Composite
40
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-11.6%
Volatility
8.9%
Max Drawdown
-17.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.95P/E
P/B2.08
P/S4.48
ROE17.9%
ROA10.3%
EPS3651.39
BVPS20952.21
Gross Margin53.3%
Net Margin37.4%
D/E0.65
Current Ratio2.97
Rev Growth26.2%
Profit Growth92.4%
EV/EBITDA7.40
Div Yield6.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
236.2M
Charter Capital
2362.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VSH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Năng Lượng Ree
Inst
52.6%
124.2 trieu
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 3
Inst
30.6%
72.2 trieu
amersham industries limited
Inst
4.9%
10.0 trieu
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch
Inst
4.4%
10.3 trieu
Ngân hàng Deutsche Aktiengesellschaft
Inst
4.3%
10.1 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SSI
Inst
3.0%
6.1 trieu
Swift Current Offshore Ltd.
Inst
2.8%
5.7 trieu
UBS AG London Branch
Inst
2.0%
4.1 trieu
swiftcurrent partners, l.p
Inst
2.0%
4.1 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Quản Lý Quỹ Đầu Tư Đỏ
Inst
1.1%
2.6 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Quốc tế Việt Nam
Inst
0.5%
1.0 trieu
Đặng Thị Hồng Phương
Indiv
0.5%
1.0 trieu
Nguyễn Đức Đối
Indiv
0.2%
453.160
Võ Thành Trung
Indiv
0.1%
298.242
Board & Management
Võ Thành Trung0.1%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Dương Tấn Tưởng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Thanh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Quang Quyền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Quách Vĩnh Bình
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Hoài Hương
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Lê Tuấn Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Thị Thanh Thúy
Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán
Hoàng Anh Tuấn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Văn Hoàng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trương Minh Tuấn
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thanh Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Computed 12/04/2026
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