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Real Estate sector

VNI

Real Estate
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Bất động sản Việt Nam
Bất động sảnCT
8.200
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
3.403
Current
8.200
Gap
-58.5%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
17.75%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.89%
x
D/(D+E)
82.25%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
6.806
60%DCF Value
-15.112
Blended Intrinsic
3.403
Value Decomposition
33%
67%
Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VNI

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

35
Weak
Accrual Quality
54
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
8
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

75.85
High Risk
DSRI
0.010
GMI
2.292
AQI
0.657
SGI
88.369
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.159
TATA
0.124
LVGI
0.872

The stock VNI exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 75.8522, far exceeding the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 34.6/100 suggests substantial issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 75.8522 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 for eq_cash_conv and eq_revenue, signaling severe cash flow and revenue recognition issues.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.0096 indicates low levels of inventory relative to sales, which is a positive sign in terms of operational efficiency.
  • The receivables metric of 100.0/100 suggests effective credit management and collection practices.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top five shareholders holding 59.2% of shares, raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest, particularly in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly regarding cash flow and revenue recognition practices, before considering any investment in VNI.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.20
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.29
Negative
Composite
28
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-22.7%
Volatility
81.4%
Max Drawdown
-66.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
1.02P/E
P/B0.62
P/S0.17
ROE87.4%
ROA9.7%
EPS7058.26
BVPS11602.69
Gross Margin36.8%
Net Margin16.6%
D/E4.63
Current Ratio0.81
Rev Growth8736.9%
Profit Growth32833.0%
EV/EBITDA2.39
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
10.6M
Charter Capital
105.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VNI — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Trần Minh Hoàng
Indiv
18.2%
1.9 trieu
Hồ Đắc Hưng
Indiv
17.0%
1.8 trieu
Trần Bình Long
Indiv
11.9%
1.2 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Như Mai
Indiv
7.0%
740.000
Hứa Huệ Tuyết
Indiv
5.1%
530.431
Phạm Văn Đức
Indiv
5.1%
528.000
Nguyễn Minh Thái
Indiv
1.7%
177.049
Đinh Thị Kim Huế
Indiv
1.7%
172.000
Lê Thị Hoa
Indiv
1.6%
165.793
Vũ Ngọc Tuấn
Indiv
1.4%
149.000
nguyen-thi-hang-nga
Indiv
1.0%
108.254
Phan Hoàng Anh
Indiv
0.4%
44.480
Trần Thị Hải Đường
Indiv
0.2%
17.963
Board & Management
Trần Minh Hoàng18.2%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Hồ Đắc Hưng17.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Ngọc Tuấn1.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Quý
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Duy Dương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hồ Phương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Kim Duyên
Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
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