PDR

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Bất động sản Phát Đạt

Bất động sảnCT

16.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

7.750

Current

16.400

Gap

-52.7%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

45.56%

Kd(1-t)

5.74%

D/(D+E)

54.44%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

15.500

60%DCF Value

-2.085

Blended Intrinsic

7.750

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PDR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.65

Elevated

DSRI

0.633

GMI

0.893

AQI

1.181

SGI

1.612

DEPI

1.307

SGAI

0.698

TATA

0.111

LVGI

1.010

PDR exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as suggested by its Beneish M-Score of -1.6513, which is above the threshold for likely manipulation. The earnings quality score of 34.3/100, particularly the cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises significant concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.6513, indicating potential earnings manipulation as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 34.3/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggesting poor cash flow relative to earnings.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 0.6328 indicates a lower risk of revenue manipulation through accounts receivable.
Receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests strong management of receivables, which is a positive sign for liquidity.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a significant concentration with the largest shareholder holding 27.7%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The presence of institutional investors, albeit minor, could provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should approach PDR with caution, closely monitoring cash flow and earnings quality metrics. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality indicators before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.60

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.15

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-1.0%

Volatility

43.2%

Max Drawdown

-35.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

33.71P/E

P/B1.40

P/S13.10

ROE4.4%

ROA2.0%

EPS516.20

BVPS12400.23

Gross Margin54.4%

Net Margin38.9%

D/E1.20

Current Ratio2.36

Rev Growth61.2%

Profit Growth232.1%

EV/EBITDA47.77

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

997.8M

Charter Capital

9978.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PDR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

nguyen-van-dat

Indiv

27.7%

271.8 trieu

Công ty TNHH Phát Đạt Holdings

Inst

8.7%

85.3 trieu

amersham industries limited

Inst

1.7%

3.5 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Minh Thư

Indiv

0.7%

6.5 trieu

Đoàn Viết Đại Từ

Indiv

0.3%

1.8 trieu

Bùi Quang Anh Vũ

Indiv

0.2%

2.2 trieu

Nguyễn Khắc Sinh

Indiv

0.2%

1.8 trieu

Trần Thị Hường

Indiv

0.1%

1.0 trieu

nguyen-dinh-tri

Indiv

0.1%

1.3 trieu

Trương Ngọc Dũng

Indiv

0.1%

1.2 trieu

Lê Quang Phúc

Indiv

0.1%

548.192

Nguyễn Hữu

Indiv

0.1%

1.1 trieu

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Đạt27.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đoàn Viết Đại Từ0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Quang Anh Vũ0.2%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

TRẦN THỊ HƯỜNG0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Đình Trí0.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Quang Phúc0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thanh Thảo

Giám đốc Tài chính

TRẦN THỊ HOÀI AN

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Dương Hồng Cẩm

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Đầu tư

Cổ Thị Thanh Liên

Phó Giám đốc Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Thị Thùy Trang

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Trọng Gia Vinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tấn Danh

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Minh Dũng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phan Huy Hân

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Khương Văn Mười

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

CIG27.7%KTT27.7%CDC27.7%IDC2 links L6127.7%BBS27.7%ATS27.7%L6227.7%VLS27.7%DSD17.6%DTL12.9%ITQ11.9%

Computed 12/04/2026