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Utilities sector

SII

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Hạ tầng Nước Sài Gòn
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
16.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
363
Current
16.100
Gap
-97.7%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:EPS default
DPS19
Payout ratio50.0%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
19
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
363
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SII

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

76
Good
Accrual Quality
78
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.96
Moderate
DSRI
1.519
GMI
1.233
AQI
1.133
SGI
1.074
DEPI
1.605
SGAI
1.037
TATA
-0.054
LVGI
1.029

SII exhibits several concerning indicators suggesting potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.9585, which is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 75.7/100 indicates relatively strong cash conversion and receivables management, which mitigates some risks.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.9585 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • DSRI of 1.5186 suggests that the company's receivables are growing faster than revenues, which could indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.
  • DEPI of 1.6049 signals that the company is recognizing more depreciation compared to its revenue growth, potentially indicating inflated earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 75.7/100, particularly strong in cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables (100.0/100), indicating solid operational efficiency.
  • Top shareholders include significant institutional ownership (50.6% and 38.0%), which may provide stability and oversight.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated with institutional investors holding 99.5% of shares, which may lead to governance risks if interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SII's financial disclosures for signs of earnings manipulation and consider a cautious approach given the elevated risk level. Engaging with management for clarity on revenue recognition practices may provide additional insights.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.08
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.09
Negative
Composite
47
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+4.4%
Volatility
151.1%
Max Drawdown
-55.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
417.63P/E
P/B0.76
P/S3.63
ROE0.2%
ROA0.1%
EPS38.55
BVPS21301.17
Gross Margin4.5%
Net Margin0.9%
D/E0.98
Current Ratio2.18
Rev Growth7.4%
Profit Growth-99.5%
EV/EBITDA95.72
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
64.5M
Charter Capital
645.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SII — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Ngành nước DNP
Inst
50.6%
32.7 trieu
Manila Water South Asia Holdings Pte. Ltd.
Inst
38.0%
24.5 trieu
VIAC (No.1) Limited Partnership
Inst
10.9%
7.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn Đầu tư Việt Thành
Inst
3.2%
1.9 trieu
Mai Thanh Trúc
Indiv
1.7%
1.0 trieu
Board & Management
Virgilio Cervantes Rivera, JR
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Thành
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Châu Ngọc Trọng
Giám đốc Kỹ thuật
Cecilia T. Cruzabra
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Marsha Emelinda Q.Santos
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Vũ Hoàng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Võ Hoàng Kiều Oanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
John Walter E. Tendencia
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Thái Tùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Chính
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Văn Nam
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Hoàng Diệp Bảo Vinh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Hà
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Hạnh
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Mai Bảo Trâm
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Xuân Giao
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Quốc Bình
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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