LSS

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Mía đường Lam Sơn

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

8.620

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

7.693

Current

8.620

Gap

-10.8%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

56.53%

Kd(1-t)

6.64%

D/(D+E)

43.47%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.40%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→102.60B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

102.60B

Growth Rate

5.40%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

7.693

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — LSS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.31

Moderate

DSRI

1.312

GMI

0.790

AQI

0.885

SGI

0.822

DEPI

0.410

SGAI

1.030

TATA

0.062

LVGI

1.061

LSS exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.3093, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 48.3 suggests weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue recognition, raising further concerns about financial integrity.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.3093 indicates potential earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality score of 48.3 reflects poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue recognition (0.0/100), signaling potential issues in financial reporting.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which is a positive aspect of cash flow management.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant concentration with the top shareholder holding 22.0%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The presence of institutional ownership (10.5%) could provide some oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor LSS for any signs of financial restatement or further deterioration in earnings quality. It may be prudent to wait for improved transparency and financial performance before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.35

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.77

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-14.5%

Volatility

12.3%

Max Drawdown

-25.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.06P/E

P/B0.47

P/S0.38

ROE6.7%

ROA3.6%

EPS1373.90

BVPS20689.33

Gross Margin14.8%

Net Margin5.3%

D/E0.86

Current Ratio1.37

Rev Growth-17.8%

Profit Growth18.6%

EV/EBITDA6.05

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

85.7M

Charter Capital

900.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for LSS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Hiệp Hội Mía Đường Lam Sơn

Indiv

22.0%

18.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Thương Mại Và Đầu Tư Thăng Long Hà Nội

Inst

10.5%

9.0 trieu

Lê Trung Thành

Indiv

5.7%

4.9 trieu

Lê Văn Tần

Indiv

5.1%

4.3 trieu

Lê Thị Phương Linh

Indiv

3.7%

2.6 trieu

Lê Văn Tiến

Indiv

2.5%

1.8 trieu

Red River Holding

Inst

2.5%

1.7 trieu

Lê Thị Lộc

Indiv

2.3%

2.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SBS

Inst

2.0%

1.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển Tân Thành Đạt

Inst

1.8%

1.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Lam Sơn Như Xuân

Inst

1.3%

923.435

Công ty Cổ phần Sữa Lam Sơn

Inst

1.1%

755.147

Lê Thanh Tùng

Indiv

0.8%

562.050

Lê Thu Thủy

Indiv

0.7%

455.610

Quỹ Đầu tư Tăng trưởng Việt Nam (VF2)

Inst

0.6%

434.390

Phùng Thị Tâm

Indiv

0.4%

308.714

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Sài Gòn Thương Tín

Inst

0.3%

210.000

Lê Thị Tiến

Indiv

0.1%

86.512

Lê Văn Thanh

Indiv

0.1%

70.312

Board & Management

Lê Trung Thành5.7%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Văn Tân5.1%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Văn Quang

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Xuân Lam

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phùng Thanh Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Thị Thanh Hà

Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Nguyễn Duy Thành

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Ngọc Quý

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Bá Chiều

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Huy Hùng

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Lê Văn Tam

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thanh Tân

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Top connections

DCV51.0%MPC16.1%SBS16.0%CLW14.0%NAS10.7%SPM7.6%JOS6.4%GVT5.7%MCH5.7%BID5.7%COM5.3%GEG5.3%

Computed 12/04/2026