MBG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn MBG

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

2.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

924

Current

2.900

Gap

-68.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

93.51%

Kd(1-t)

7.59%

D/(D+E)

6.49%

WACC

11.90%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

2.281

50%DCF Value

-433

Blended Intrinsic

924

Value Decomposition

42%

58%

Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MBG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.66

Low Risk

DSRI

1.188

GMI

-0.412

AQI

1.184

SGI

0.612

DEPI

0.964

SGAI

0.667

TATA

-0.028

LVGI

1.795

MBG exhibits several concerning indicators suggesting potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -3.6612, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality metrics reveal weaknesses in revenue recognition and receivables management, posing risks to the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -3.6612 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 50.4 suggests moderate quality, with particularly low scores in revenue (21.2/100) and receivables (0.0/100), indicating potential issues in revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

The accrual component of earnings quality is strong at 88.9/100, indicating that reported earnings are backed by actual cash flows.
The company has a relatively low SGI of 0.6120, suggesting that growth is not being pursued aggressively, which may help maintain stability.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, with the top three shareholders holding a combined 26.3%. This concentration can lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of a small group over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should approach MBG with caution due to the elevated risk of earnings manipulation. A thorough review of financial statements and monitoring of future earnings reports is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.78

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.48

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-13.5%

Volatility

43.2%

Max Drawdown

-34.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

17.83P/E

P/B0.28

P/S0.69

ROE1.6%

ROA1.4%

EPS168.29

BVPS10874.04

Gross Margin6.5%

Net Margin3.8%

D/E0.11

Current Ratio7.01

Rev Growth68.9%

Profit Growth-26.1%

EV/EBITDA12.20

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

120.2M

Charter Capital

1202.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MBG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Phạm Huy Thành

Indiv

9.6%

11.5 trieu

Đặng Thị Tuyết Lan

Indiv

9.3%

11.2 trieu

Vũ Quang Doanh

Indiv

7.4%

595.000

Công ty TNHH Quang Ngân Việt Nam

Inst

5.5%

4.0 trieu

Công ty TNHH AAI Quốc tế

Inst

5.5%

4.0 trieu

Trần Thị Hiền

Indiv

5.1%

3.5 trieu

Trần Minh Tuấn

Indiv

5.1%

3.5 trieu

Nguyễn Chiến Toàn

Indiv

5.1%

404.900

Peter Eric Dennis

Indiv

4.2%

880.000

Ngô Thị Huệ

Indiv

1.7%

743.302

Đặng Nhật Anh

Indiv

1.5%

123.100

Board & Management

Phạm Huy Thành9.6%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Thị Tuyết Lan9.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Dương Quang Đông

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vương Bảo Yến

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Tuyết Nhung

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Mai

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Hạnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Bích

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Thúy Loan

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

VMK25.8%PMS11.3%DAH8.9%EBS6.9%TNA6.3%KKC6.1%ADC6.0%EID5.6%PIA5.2%SGR5.1%SPH5.1%MBB5.1%

Computed 12/04/2026