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Consumer sector

MSN

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Masan
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
73.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
14.682
Current
73.300
Gap
-80.0%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
27.61%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.12%
x
D/(D+E)
72.39%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.93%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF4272.38B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
4272.38B
Growth Rate
3.93%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
14.682
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MSN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

45
Weak
Accrual Quality
83
Cash Conversion
16
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.90
Low Risk
DSRI
0.263
GMI
0.946
AQI
1.150
SGI
0.981
DEPI
1.139
SGAI
0.988
TATA
0.042
LVGI
0.899

Masan Group (MSN) exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.896, which is below the manipulation threshold. While the earnings quality score is moderate, the low cash conversion and revenue metrics raise significant red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.896 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 44.9/100 reflects poor cash conversion (16.2/100) and zero scores for revenue and margin metrics, suggesting unsustainable earnings.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.2628 indicates a lower risk of revenue inflation through receivables, which is a positive sign.
  • Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of receivables.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the largest shareholder holding 29.3%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on Masan Group, particularly focusing on cash flow sustainability and governance practices, before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.75
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.38
Positive
Composite
39
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+22.6%
Volatility
31.0%
Max Drawdown
-29.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
28.87P/E
P/B3.36
P/S1.45
ROE12.5%
ROA3.0%
EPS2701.96
BVPS23247.84
Gross Margin31.3%
Net Margin5.0%
D/E1.86
Current Ratio0.90
Rev Growth-1.8%
Profit Growth105.5%
EV/EBITDA15.45
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
1445.9M
Charter Capital
15204.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MSN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ Phần Masan
Inst
29.3%
446.3 trieu
Công ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Xây Dựng Hoa Hướng Dương
Inst
12.4%
189.1 trieu
bankinvest private equity new markets ii k/s
Inst
5.8%
43.0 trieu
Sk Investment Vina I Pte. Ltd.
Inst
3.7%
55.5 trieu
Ardolis Investment Pte Ltd
Inst
2.8%
39.6 trieu
Government Of Singapore
State
2.2%
31.6 trieu
PENM III Germany GmbH & Co. KG
Inst
2.1%
22.6 trieu
MRC Limited
Inst
1.6%
12.0 trieu
amersham industries limited
Inst
1.4%
10.5 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Xăng dầu HFC
Inst
1.2%
9.0 trieu
Favour Sea Holdings Limited
Inst
1.1%
8.0 trieu
Madhur Maini
Indiv
0.9%
6.6 trieu
Vietnam Resouce Investments (Cayman) Limited
Inst
0.7%
5.3 trieu
VanEck Vietnam ETF
Inst
0.7%
8.1 trieu
Nguyễn Yến Linh
Indiv
0.6%
8.5 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Thủy
Indiv
0.5%
5.7 trieu
Công ty Tài Chính Quốc Tế
Inst
0.4%
3.1 trieu
Le Danny
Indiv
0.3%
4.0 trieu
Michael Hùng Nguyễn
Indiv
0.2%
3.5 trieu
nguyen-thieu-quang
Indiv
0.2%
2.7 trieu
nguyen-quynh-lam
Indiv
0.1%
1.7 trieu
Dragon Capital
Inst
0.1%
945.460
Board & Management
Nguyễn Hoàng Yến3.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Le Danny0.3%
Tổng Giám đốc
Michael Hùng Nguyễn0.2%
Giám đốc Tài chính/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Quỳnh Lâm0.1%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đoàn Thị Mỹ Duyên
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thiều Nam
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Đình Toại
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Phương Bắc
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
David Tan Wei Ming
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hà
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Thị Thúy Hoa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Đăng Quang
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đoan Hùng
Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ /Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hà
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Woncheol Park
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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