HPG
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HPG
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
HPG exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -1.9864, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 66.7 suggests reasonable performance, the low receivables score of 21.6 raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.
- Beneish M-Score of -1.9864 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
- Low receivables quality score of 21.6/100 suggests aggressive revenue recognition practices.
- Strong accrual quality score of 99.7/100 indicates that earnings are likely backed by actual cash flows.
- Ownership by major shareholders such as Trần Đình Long (25.8%) suggests alignment of interests with management.
The concentrated ownership structure, with Trần Đình Long holding 25.8%, presents a risk of potential governance issues, as decisions may favor individual interests over minority shareholders.
Investors should conduct further due diligence on HPG's revenue recognition practices and monitor any changes in the ownership structure, particularly regarding the influence of major shareholders.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for HPG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate