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Utilities sector

NBP

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Nhiệt Điện Ninh Bình
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
7.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
24.514
Current
7.700
Gap
+218.4%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.300
Payout ratio1355.6%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.300
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
24.514
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NBP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

12
Poor
Accrual Quality
59
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.11
Moderate
DSRI
1.864
GMI
0.161
AQI
1.789
SGI
0.310
DEPI
0.860
SGAI
3.338
TATA
0.104
LVGI
0.239

The Beneish M-Score of -2.108 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, but the high DSRI of 1.8645 and poor earnings quality metrics raise significant concerns. The earnings quality score of 11.8/100, particularly the zero scores in cash conversion and receivables, suggests severe issues in financial reporting and operational efficiency.

Red Flags
  • DSRI of 1.8645 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, which may suggest aggressive revenue recognition.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 11.8/100 indicates extremely poor earnings quality, with zero scores in cash conversion and receivables, raising concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.108 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Phát điện 3 holding 54.8%, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced accountability in governance.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on NBP, particularly focusing on cash flow management and revenue recognition practices before considering any investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.79
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.85
Negative
Composite
35
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-18.9%
Volatility
52.3%
Max Drawdown
-49.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.28P/E
P/B0.43
P/S0.28
ROE3.5%
ROA2.2%
EPS635.17
BVPS18345.70
Gross Margin10.6%
Net Margin2.3%
D/E0.14
Current Ratio5.38
Rev Growth-69.0%
Profit Growth162.3%
EV/EBITDA3.86
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
12.9M
Charter Capital
128.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NBP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 3
Inst
54.8%
7.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Dịch Vụ Vận Tải Thuận Hải
Inst
29.6%
3.8 trieu
america limited liability company
Inst
5.0%
642.600
Công ty Cổ phần Quản Lý Quỹ Sài Gòn
Inst
4.0%
517.300
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SSI
Inst
4.0%
513.000
Quỹ tầm nhìn SSI
Inst
2.4%
305.500
Trần Kế Tấn
Indiv
0.4%
56.000
Board & Management
Tống Đức Chính
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trịnh Văn Đoàn
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Quốc Trung
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Trương Tiến Đạt
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Thị Thanh Hải
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hồ Bảo Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Đức Chấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lương Thị Thúy
Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Thị Thanh Bình
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Phong Danh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đường Xuân Hồng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
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