Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.810
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 27 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 90.6%100th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 1.83×Statutory test met
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 5Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals show a high degree of aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers: the Beneish M‑Score is -0.20 (91st Vietnam percentile) with a year‑over‑year improvement of -0.53; several Beneish components are extreme (DSRI 5.2259, GMI 6.0311, SGAI 10.0000). At the same time, some quality measures are mixed — accruals-quality is strong at 100/100 while earnings-quality overall is weak (37.6/100), Altman Z‑Score is -1.40 (distress zone) and Piotroski F‑Score is 3/9.
- Beneish M‑Score -0.20 (91st percentile vs Vietnamese peers). The M‑Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; the company ranks in the top 9% most aggressive among Vietnamese comparators (note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam).
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 5.2259. DSRI measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value this large signals receivables growing far faster than sales and potential revenue recognition or collectability issues.
- Gross Margin Index (GMI) = 6.0311. GMI measures deterioration in gross margins; values above 1 indicate margin deterioration, and 6.03 is an extreme deterioration signal.
- SGA Index (SGAI) = 10.0000. SGAI measures increases in selling, general & administrative expenses relative to sales; 10.0 is an extreme increase versus sales.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 58.3% of total assets (98th Vietnam percentile). This line mixes prepayments, loans receivable and long‑term receivables and is extremely large relative to peers.
- Accumulated losses = 1.51x paid‑in capital and net loss for three consecutive years to FY2023. The audited statements report accumulated losses in excess of paid‑in capital and three straight annual parent net losses.
- Altman Z‑Score = -1.40 (distress zone). This score measures distance to bankruptcy based on size, profitability, leverage and liquidity; -1.40 places the company in the model's distress zone.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 3/9. The F‑Score measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength; a 3 indicates weak fundamentals.
- Earnings‑quality subcomponents: Cash conversion 12.6/100, Receivables quality 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100, Revenue quality 38.4/100. These low scores point to poor cash performance, very weak receivables quality and margin reliability.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100. This measures the reliability of accrual components of earnings; a perfect score indicates accruals are, by this metric, the least problematic element of earnings.
- Total Accruals to Total Assets (TATA) = -0.4078. TATA measures total accruals scaled to assets; a negative value often indicates cash flows from operations exceed accrual‑based profit, which can be a stabilizing sign of cash generation relative to reported earnings.
- LVGI (leverage growth index) = 1.2715. This Beneish component measures growth in leverage; a value modestly above 1 signals increasing leverage but is less extreme than several other ratios.
- SGI (sales growth index) = 0.1097. SGI below 1 (and here far below) indicates sales are not rapidly growing, which reduces pressure to aggressively inflate revenue compared with very high‑growth firms (but must be read with other signals such as DSRI).
Top owner is an institution with 24.0% (Công ty Cổ Phần Sài Gòn Hưng Phú); the remaining shares are widely held individuals with single‑digit stakes (largest individual 6.1%). This indicates a concentrated block holder alongside dispersed retail holders. Director‑deal filings show 1 purchase registration and 0 sale registrations disclosed between 2025‑10‑30 and 2026‑10‑30 — registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the detail of 'Receivables and other receivables' (the note/schedule) for FY2023 and FY2022 to quantify the components behind the 58.3% of assets figure (prepayments, loans to related parties, long‑term receivables).
- Reconcile the revenue and receivables lines: check the sales/revenue note and the accounts receivable schedule to confirm how much of receivables relate to trade receivables versus non‑trade items.
- Review the statement of cash flows and the notes for operating cash flow to validate the TATA = -0.4078 result and explain the Cash conversion score of 12.6/100 (compare profit before tax to cash from operations).
- Inspect the equity and retained earnings movements (the parent company profit/loss line and accumulated losses note) to trace how accumulated losses reached 1.51x paid‑in capital and to confirm the three consecutive parent net losses stated for FY2021–FY2023.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.31
- P/S
- 35.18
- ROE
- −10.9%
- ROA
- −7.5%
- EPS
- −823
- BVPS
- 7.162
- Gross Margin
- 3.0%
- Net Margin
- −1320.9%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.48
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 9.6M
- Charter Capital
- 95.7B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
- Sub-industry
- Hàng điện & điện tử
- Company Type
- CT