NSC

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Giống cây trồng Việt Nam

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

72.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

247.052

Current

72.900

Gap

+238.9%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

65.11%

Kd(1-t)

6.73%

D/(D+E)

34.89%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend8.31%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→230.13B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

230.13B

Growth Rate

8.31%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

247.052

Value Decomposition

42%

58%

Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NSC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.83

Moderate

DSRI

0.976

GMI

1.052

AQI

0.887

SGI

1.203

DEPI

0.953

SGAI

1.011

TATA

0.099

LVGI

0.843

NSC exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.8323, which is below the manipulation threshold. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 49.5/100, especially the low cash conversion rate of 4.3/100, raises significant red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.8323 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality score of 49.5/100 reflects weak performance, particularly with a cash conversion rate of only 4.3/100, suggesting poor cash flow relative to earnings.
SGI of 1.2030 indicates aggressive growth in sales, which may not be supported by actual cash flow, raising concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of accounts receivable, indicating that the company is likely collecting its receivables efficiently.
The DSRI of 0.9758 indicates that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, which is a positive sign in terms of operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, with 80.0% held by Công ty Cổ phần PAN Farm, poses risks related to governance and potential lack of accountability, as minority shareholders may have limited influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow metrics and revenue recognition practices, before considering any investment in NSC.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.73

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.78

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-6.5%

Volatility

13.8%

Max Drawdown

-14.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.80P/E

P/B0.85

P/S0.58

ROE15.4%

ROA9.6%

EPS13069.02

BVPS88707.10

Gross Margin29.2%

Net Margin10.0%

D/E0.57

Current Ratio1.95

Rev Growth-5.1%

Profit Growth5.5%

EV/EBITDA4.34

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

17.6M

Charter Capital

175.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NSC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần PAN Farm

Inst

80.0%

14.1 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Bất động sản SSI

Inst

7.4%

1.1 trieu

Matthews Emerging Asia Fund

Inst

4.2%

735.272

Công ty TNHH Ndh Việt Nam

Inst

2.7%

413.188

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SSI

Inst

2.5%

386.681

Quỹ Đầu Tư Chứng Khoán Bảo Việt

Inst

1.3%

200.000

Đỗ Tiến Sỹ

Indiv

0.2%

31.903

Trần Đình Long

Indiv

0.2%

27.618

Phạm Ngọc Lý

Indiv

0.1%

21.820

Đỗ Bá Vọng

Indiv

0.1%

19.813

Board & Management

Đỗ Tiến Sỹ0.2%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Đình Long0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Bá Vọng0.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phan Thế Tý

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Trà My

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Quang Trường

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Thị Lệ Hằng

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Khánh Quỳnh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Trung Dũng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hải Thọ

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Dương Quang Sáu

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Sản xuất

Trần Kim Liên

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Anh Tuấn

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lương Ngọc Thái

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VFG80.0%PAN3 links HPG25.8%FUESSV5025.6%SSC2 links DAC11.8%TEG7.2%PID6.3%FUESSVFL5.1%DBC5.0%ELC5.0%NLG4.2%

Computed 12/04/2026