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Real Estate sector

FIR

Real Estate
Công ty Cổ phần Địa ốc First Real
Bất động sảnCT
5.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
High
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
13.583
Current
5.000
Gap
+171.7%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
59.37%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.33%
x
D/(D+E)
40.63%
=
WACC
10.24%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.45%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
13.171
60%DCF Value
13.857
Blended Intrinsic
13.583
Value Decomposition
33%
67%
Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — FIR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

64
Fair
Accrual Quality
75
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.24
Moderate
DSRI
0.490
GMI
1.236
AQI
1.051
SGI
1.842
DEPI
0.692
SGAI
0.238
TATA
-0.062
LVGI
0.969

FIR exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.2359, indicating a lower likelihood of manipulation, yet several earnings quality metrics raise concerns. The significant SGI of 1.8417 suggests aggressive revenue growth, which may not be sustainable, warranting caution in the context of the Vietnamese market's volatility.

Red Flags
  • SGI of 1.8417 indicates aggressive revenue growth, potentially unsustainable.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 63.8/100 is moderate, with zero scores in eq_margin and eq_revenue, suggesting potential issues in profitability and revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.2359 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • High cash conversion rate (eq_cash_conv of 100.0/100) suggests strong cash flow management.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, with the largest shareholder holding 15.2%. This concentration may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor revenue growth closely given the elevated SGI and consider a deeper analysis of profitability metrics before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.18
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.10
Positive
Composite
72
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+16.2%
Volatility
28.9%
Max Drawdown
-30.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
25.19P/E
P/B0.64
P/S3.69
ROE2.6%
ROA1.5%
EPS266.72
BVPS10536.69
Gross Margin52.5%
Net Margin14.6%
D/E0.65
Current Ratio1.83
Rev Growth84.2%
Profit Growth184.1%
EV/EBITDA10.30
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
70.7M
Charter Capital
706.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for FIR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
nguyen-anh-tuan
Indiv
15.2%
9.8 trieu
Vũ Hoàng Việt
Indiv
6.8%
4.4 trieu
NGUYỄN HÀO HIỆP
Indiv
4.3%
2.8 trieu
Nguyễn Thế Trung
Indiv
3.4%
2.2 trieu
Nguyễn Thế Chung
Indiv
3.4%
915.200
Trương Đình Cát Khánh
Indiv
1.0%
208.448
Vũ Hạnh Quyên
Indiv
1.0%
642.465
Lê Tuấn
Indiv
0.9%
552.000
Nguyễn Xuân Trung
Indiv
0.8%
486.772
Hà Thân Thúc Luân
Indiv
0.2%
144.000
Phan Thị Cẩm Thanh
Indiv
0.2%
127.951
Board & Management
Nguyễn Anh Tuấn15.2%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thế Trung3.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Xuân Trung0.8%
Kế toán trưởng
Hà Thân Thúc Luân0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Thị Cẩm Thanh0.2%
Giám đốc Tài chính/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Huy Đông
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Thân Hà Nhất Thống
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Phượng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát/Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Mai Thị Thùy Trang
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Trương Thị Dung Nhi
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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